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Championship

Referee: Graham Scott

Birmingham

U S S U U

1–2

Full-time

Middlesbrough

T S T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Birmingham Middlesbrough

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

33%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,0

1,8

Scored

1,3

1,0

Conceded

0,7

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,2

This season — Championship · 26/26 matches

Win Ø 39%

35%

42%

Points per game

1,5

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 37%

50%

23%

Both score Ø 45%

54%

35%

Average goals

2,5

1,8

Scored

1,5

1,1

Conceded

1,1

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

59% Possession 41%

15 Shots 8

4 Shots on target 5

7 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

2 Corners 4

0 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Birmingham 8. · Middlesbrough 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	26	14	7	5	+14	49
2	Leeds	25	14	6	5	+13	48
3	Sheffield United	26	14	5	7	+17	47
4	West Brom	25	13	6	6	+20	45
5	Middlesbrough	26	11	10	5	+10	43
6	Derby	25	12	7	6	+9	43
7	Nott'm Forest	26	9	12	5	+10	39
8	Birmingham	26	9	12	5	+10	39
9	QPR	26	11	6	9	-1	39
10	Bristol City	26	10	8	8	+4	38
11	Aston Villa	25	9	10	6	+9	37
12	Swansea	26	10	6	10	+4	36
13	Hull	26	10	6	10	+3	36
14	Stoke	26	8	11	7	-1	35
15	Blackburn	26	8	10	8	-8	34
16	Sheffield Weds	26	8	8	10	-10	32
17	Preston	26	7	8	11	-5	29
18	Brentford	26	6	10	10	+0	28
19	Millwall	26	7	7	12	-8	28
20	Wigan	26	7	5	14	-15	26
21	Rotherham	26	5	10	11	-16	25
22	Bolton	26	5	7	14	-21	22
23	Reading	26	4	8	14	-13	20
24	Ipswich	26	2	9	15	-25	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leeds	13	8	3	2	+11	27
2	Norwich	13	8	1	4	+4	25
3	West Brom	12	7	3	2	+15	24
4	Sheffield United	13	7	3	3	+10	24
5	Derby	12	6	5	1	+7	23
6	QPR	13	7	2	4	+6	23
7	Birmingham	13	5	7	1	+9	22
8	Nott'm Forest	13	6	4	3	+5	22
9	Middlesbrough	13	6	4	3	+5	22
10	Millwall	13	6	4	3	+4	22
11	Brentford	13	6	3	4	+8	21
12	Aston Villa	13	5	6	2	+6	21
13	Blackburn	13	5	6	2	+3	21
14	Stoke	13	6	3	4	+2	21
15	Rotherham	13	5	6	2	+0	21
16	Wigan	13	6	3	4	-1	21
17	Preston	13	5	5	3	+7	20
18	Hull	13	5	3	5	+5	18
19	Swansea	13	5	3	5	+2	18
20	Sheffield Weds	13	4	6	3	-2	18
21	Bristol City	13	4	5	4	+1	17
22	Bolton	13	3	3	7	-8	12
23	Reading	13	3	2	8	-5	11
24	Ipswich	13	1	7	5	-6	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	13	6	6	1	+10	24
2	Sheffield United	13	7	2	4	+7	23
3	West Brom	13	6	3	4	+5	21
4	Middlesbrough	13	5	6	2	+5	21
5	Bristol City	13	6	3	4	+3	21
6	Leeds	12	6	3	3	+2	21
7	Derby	13	6	2	5	+2	20
8	Swansea	13	5	3	5	+2	18
9	Hull	13	5	3	5	-2	18
10	Nott'm Forest	13	3	8	2	+5	17
11	Birmingham	13	4	5	4	+1	17
12	Aston Villa	12	4	4	4	+3	16
13	QPR	13	4	4	5	-7	16
14	Stoke	13	2	8	3	-3	14
15	Sheffield Weds	13	4	2	7	-8	14
16	Blackburn	13	3	4	6	-11	13
17	Bolton	13	2	4	7	-13	10
18	Reading	13	1	6	6	-8	9
19	Preston	13	2	3	8	-12	9
20	Brentford	13	0	7	6	-8	7
21	Millwall	13	1	3	9	-12	6
22	Wigan	13	1	2	10	-14	5
23	Ipswich	13	1	2	10	-19	5
24	Rotherham	13	0	4	9	-16	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.