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Championship

Referee: A Woolmer

Middlesbrough

S S S U T

1–1

Full-time

Birmingham

U T T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Middlesbrough Birmingham

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,2

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

2,2

4,0

Scored

1,5

1,7

Conceded

0,7

2,3

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,7

This season — Championship · 28/28 matches

Win Ø 31%

29%

32%

Points per game

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 41%

36%

46%

Both score Ø 50%

43%

57%

Average goals

2,3

2,8

Scored

1,0

1,2

Conceded

1,3

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

56% Possession 44%

16 Shots 11

2 Shots on target 4

7 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

7 Corners 5

0 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 11

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Middlesbrough 17. · Birmingham 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	West Brom	28	14	11	3	+19	53
2	Leeds	28	15	7	6	+19	52
3	Fulham	26	14	5	7	+13	47
4	Nott'm Forest	27	13	8	6	+11	47
5	Swansea	26	12	9	5	+8	45
6	Millwall	28	11	11	6	+4	44
7	Bristol City	28	12	8	8	+2	44
8	Preston	28	12	7	9	+5	43
9	Sheffield Weds	28	12	6	10	+8	42
10	Blackburn	28	11	7	10	+5	40
11	Hull	28	11	6	11	+4	39
12	Brentford	25	11	5	9	+17	38
13	Cardiff	27	9	11	7	-2	38
14	QPR	28	11	5	12	-5	38
15	Derby	28	9	10	9	-7	37
16	Reading	27	10	6	11	+3	36
17	Middlesbrough	28	8	10	10	-7	34
18	Birmingham	28	9	6	13	-11	33
19	Charlton	28	7	8	13	-4	29
20	Huddersfield	28	7	8	13	-13	29
21	Stoke	28	8	4	16	-8	28
22	Barnsley	28	5	9	14	-16	24
23	Wigan	28	5	8	15	-18	23
24	Luton	28	6	3	19	-27	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Preston	15	10	2	3	+13	32
2	Fulham	15	9	2	4	+10	29
3	Derby	15	8	5	2	+8	29
4	Millwall	14	8	4	2	+9	28
5	Leeds	13	7	4	2	+9	25
6	Cardiff	12	7	4	1	+9	25
7	West Brom	14	6	6	2	+10	24
8	Swansea	14	7	3	4	+6	24
9	Blackburn	14	6	6	2	+5	24
10	Nott'm Forest	13	7	2	4	+3	23
11	Middlesbrough	14	6	5	3	+1	23
12	QPR	15	6	4	5	+2	22
13	Bristol City	14	6	4	4	+2	22
14	Sheffield Weds	14	6	4	4	-1	22
15	Brentford	11	6	3	2	+13	21
16	Hull	14	6	2	6	+4	20
17	Charlton	14	5	4	5	+2	19
18	Reading	13	6	1	6	+2	19
19	Birmingham	14	5	3	6	-1	18
20	Barnsley	14	4	6	4	-2	18
21	Huddersfield	15	4	5	6	-5	17
22	Wigan	13	4	4	5	-5	16
23	Luton	13	4	3	6	-2	15
24	Stoke	14	4	3	7	-3	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	West Brom	14	8	5	1	+9	29
2	Leeds	15	8	3	4	+10	27
3	Nott'm Forest	14	6	6	2	+8	24
4	Bristol City	14	6	4	4	+0	22
5	Swansea	12	5	6	1	+2	21
6	Sheffield Weds	14	6	2	6	+9	20
7	Hull	14	5	4	5	+0	19
8	Fulham	11	5	3	3	+3	18
9	Brentford	14	5	2	7	+4	17
10	Reading	14	4	5	5	+1	17
11	Blackburn	14	5	1	8	+0	16
12	Millwall	14	3	7	4	-5	16
13	QPR	13	5	1	7	-7	16
14	Birmingham	14	4	3	7	-10	15
15	Stoke	14	4	1	9	-5	13
16	Cardiff	15	2	7	6	-11	13
17	Huddersfield	13	3	3	7	-8	12
18	Middlesbrough	14	2	5	7	-8	11
19	Preston	13	2	5	6	-8	11
20	Charlton	14	2	4	8	-6	10
21	Derby	13	1	5	7	-15	8
22	Wigan	15	1	4	10	-13	7
23	Barnsley	14	1	3	10	-14	6
24	Luton	15	2	0	13	-25	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.