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Championship

Referee: K Stroud

Nott'm Forest

S U U U S

3–1

Full-time

Millwall

T S U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nott'm Forest Millwall

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,5

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

17%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

1,8

2,3

Scored

1,0

Conceded

0,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,3

This season — Championship · 23/22 matches

Win Ø 23%

22%

23%

Points per game

1,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 22%

17%

27%

Both score Ø 45%

39%

50%

Average goals

1,8

Scored

0,7

0,9

Conceded

1,1

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

45% Possession 55%

17 Shots 15

5 Shots on target 5

5 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 8

0 Offside 2

11 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nott'm Forest 21. · Millwall 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	23	14	5	4	+11	47
2	Bournemouth	22	11	9	2	+20	42
3	Reading	23	12	4	7	+6	40
4	Swansea	21	11	6	4	+12	39
5	Brentford	20	10	7	3	+14	37
6	Watford	22	10	7	5	+8	37
7	Middlesbrough	23	10	6	7	+9	36
8	Stoke	23	9	8	6	+4	35
9	Barnsley	22	10	4	8	+0	34
10	Bristol City	22	10	3	9	-1	33
11	Blackburn	23	9	5	9	+11	32
12	Preston	23	10	2	11	-1	32
13	Huddersfield	23	9	4	10	-4	31
14	Luton	23	8	6	9	-6	30
15	Cardiff	22	8	5	9	+4	29
16	Millwall	22	5	11	6	-2	26
17	Coventry	23	6	8	9	-9	26
18	Birmingham	24	6	8	10	-11	26
19	Sheffield Weds	23	6	7	10	-8	25
20	QPR	23	5	9	9	-8	24
21	Nott'm Forest	23	5	7	11	-10	22
22	Derby	22	4	7	11	-10	19
23	Rotherham	20	4	4	12	-10	16
24	Wycombe	23	3	6	14	-19	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Watford	11	8	2	1	+11	26
2	Norwich	12	7	4	1	+7	25
3	Bournemouth	11	7	3	1	+12	24
4	Middlesbrough	11	7	2	2	+10	23
5	Swansea	11	6	4	1	+8	22
6	Huddersfield	12	7	1	4	+6	22
7	Reading	11	7	0	4	+4	21
8	Barnsley	11	6	2	3	+3	20
9	Luton	12	5	4	3	+2	19
10	Blackburn	11	5	3	3	+6	18
11	Stoke	12	5	3	4	+0	18
12	Sheffield Weds	12	4	5	3	+1	17
13	Bristol City	11	5	2	4	+0	17
14	Coventry	11	4	5	2	-1	17
15	Brentford	9	4	4	1	+6	16
16	Cardiff	11	4	2	5	+4	14
17	Nott'm Forest	11	3	4	4	-1	13
18	QPR	11	3	4	4	-2	13
19	Preston	12	4	1	7	-3	13
20	Rotherham	10	3	2	5	+0	11
21	Millwall	11	1	7	3	-3	10
22	Wycombe	12	2	4	6	-6	10
23	Birmingham	12	2	2	8	-13	8
24	Derby	11	1	4	6	-9	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	11	7	1	3	+4	22
2	Brentford	11	6	3	2	+8	21
3	Preston	11	6	1	4	+2	19
4	Reading	12	5	4	3	+2	19
5	Bournemouth	11	4	6	1	+8	18
6	Birmingham	12	4	6	2	+2	18
7	Swansea	10	5	2	3	+4	17
8	Stoke	11	4	5	2	+4	17
9	Millwall	11	4	4	3	+1	16
10	Bristol City	11	5	1	5	-1	16
11	Cardiff	11	4	3	4	+0	15
12	Blackburn	12	4	2	6	+5	14
13	Barnsley	11	4	2	5	-3	14
14	Middlesbrough	12	3	4	5	-1	13
15	Derby	11	3	3	5	-1	12
16	Watford	11	2	5	4	-3	11
17	QPR	12	2	5	5	-6	11
18	Luton	11	3	2	6	-8	11
19	Coventry	12	2	3	7	-8	9
20	Nott'm Forest	12	2	3	7	-9	9
21	Huddersfield	11	2	3	6	-10	9
22	Sheffield Weds	11	2	2	7	-9	8
23	Rotherham	10	1	2	7	-10	5
24	Wycombe	11	1	2	8	-13	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.