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Primeira Liga

Referee: Goncalo Martins

Vitoria Setubal

T S T S T

1–0

Full-time

Nacional

T S T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Vitoria Setubal Nacional

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,0

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

2,2

2,5

Scored

1,0

0,8

Conceded

1,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,8

This season — Primeira Liga · 16/16 matches

Win Ø 25%

31%

19%

Points per game

1,2

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 41%

31%

50%

Both score Ø 41%

38%

44%

Average goals

2,1

2,4

Scored

1,0

0,9

Conceded

1,1

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,1

-0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

59% Possession 41%

14 Shots 10

6 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

8 Corners 5

2 Offside 5

13 Free kicks against 19

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Vitoria Setubal 11. · Nacional 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	16	13	2	1	+26	41
2	Porto	16	10	5	1	+21	35
3	Sp Braga	16	10	3	3	+14	33
4	Sp Lisbon	16	10	3	3	+13	33
5	Guimaraes	16	9	3	4	+8	30
6	Rio Ave	16	7	3	6	+0	24
7	Chaves	16	5	8	3	+2	23
8	Maritimo	16	7	2	7	-1	23
9	Arouca	17	7	2	8	-4	23
10	Boavista	16	5	5	6	-1	20
11	Vitoria Setubal	16	5	4	7	-1	19
12	Belenenses	16	4	5	7	-6	17
13	Pacos Ferreira	16	4	5	7	-7	17
14	Estoril	17	4	3	10	-9	15
15	Moreirense	16	4	2	10	-11	14
16	Feirense	16	4	2	10	-19	14
17	Nacional	16	3	3	10	-11	12
18	Tondela	16	2	4	10	-14	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Braga	8	7	1	0	+14	22
2	Sp Lisbon	9	7	1	1	+13	22
3	Porto	8	7	1	0	+12	22
4	Benfica	7	6	1	0	+15	19
5	Vitoria Setubal	8	4	1	3	+4	13
6	Maritimo	7	4	1	2	+3	13
7	Chaves	8	3	4	1	+2	13
8	Pacos Ferreira	8	3	4	1	+2	13
9	Arouca	9	4	1	4	+0	13
10	Rio Ave	9	4	1	4	-1	13
11	Guimaraes	8	3	3	2	+2	12
12	Boavista	8	3	2	3	+2	11
13	Belenenses	7	2	3	2	-1	9
14	Moreirense	8	2	2	4	-3	8
15	Tondela	8	2	2	4	-3	8
16	Nacional	9	2	2	5	-7	8
17	Estoril	8	2	1	5	-4	7
18	Feirense	8	2	1	5	-10	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	9	7	1	1	+11	22
2	Guimaraes	8	6	0	2	+6	18
3	Porto	8	3	4	1	+9	13
4	Rio Ave	7	3	2	2	+1	11
5	Sp Lisbon	7	3	2	2	+0	11
6	Sp Braga	8	3	2	3	+0	11
7	Chaves	8	2	4	2	+0	10
8	Arouca	8	3	1	4	-4	10
9	Maritimo	9	3	1	5	-4	10
10	Boavista	8	2	3	3	-3	9
11	Estoril	9	2	2	5	-5	8
12	Belenenses	9	2	2	5	-5	8
13	Feirense	8	2	1	5	-9	7
14	Vitoria Setubal	8	1	3	4	-5	6
15	Moreirense	8	2	0	6	-8	6
16	Nacional	7	1	1	5	-4	4
17	Pacos Ferreira	8	1	1	6	-9	4
18	Tondela	8	0	2	6	-11	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.