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Eredivisie

Referee: Bjorn Kuipers

Excelsior

S T S T T

1–3

Full-time

Heracles

T T T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Excelsior Heracles

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,7

3,7

Scored

0,8

1,2

Conceded

1,8

2,5

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-1,3

This season — Eredivisie · 29/26 matches

Win Ø 34%

21%

46%

Points per game

0,9

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 51%

55%

46%

Both score Ø 42%

45%

38%

Average goals

2,8

2,7

Scored

1,0

1,3

Conceded

1,8

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

57% Possession 43%

12 Shots 14

4 Shots on target 5

0 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

12 Corners 8

2 Offside 3

0 Free kicks against 0

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Excelsior 16. · Heracles 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	29	22	5	2	+53	71
2	PSV Eindhoven	29	21	6	2	+43	69
3	Feyenoord	29	16	4	9	+19	52
4	AZ Alkmaar	29	14	5	10	+9	47
5	Zwolle	28	13	5	10	+8	44
6	Vitesse	29	12	7	10	+21	43
7	Nijmegen	29	12	7	10	+0	43
8	Heracles	26	12	5	9	-2	41
9	Twente	29	11	5	13	-12	38
10	Den Haag	29	9	10	10	-2	37
11	Groningen	28	10	7	11	-11	37
12	Heerenveen	29	10	7	12	-14	37
13	Utrecht	25	10	6	9	+5	36
14	Roda	30	7	10	13	-17	31
15	Willem II	29	5	10	14	-14	25
16	Excelsior	29	6	7	16	-24	25
17	De Graafschap	29	4	6	19	-24	18
18	Cambuur	29	3	8	18	-38	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	15	12	2	1	+33	38
2	PSV Eindhoven	14	10	3	1	+17	33
3	Feyenoord	15	10	2	3	+18	32
4	Nijmegen	15	10	2	3	+8	32
5	Zwolle	14	9	2	3	+9	29
6	AZ Alkmaar	15	8	2	5	+7	26
7	Twente	14	8	2	4	+5	26
8	Heracles	13	8	2	3	+4	26
9	Groningen	14	7	3	4	+2	24
10	Vitesse	14	7	2	5	+14	23
11	Utrecht	12	6	4	2	+5	22
12	Den Haag	15	4	7	4	-1	19
13	Heerenveen	14	5	4	5	-4	19
14	Willem II	15	3	6	6	-4	15
15	Roda	15	3	6	6	-6	15
16	Excelsior	14	4	3	7	-8	15
17	De Graafschap	15	3	4	8	-6	13
18	Cambuur	14	2	4	8	-17	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	15	11	3	1	+26	36
2	Ajax	14	10	3	1	+20	33
3	AZ Alkmaar	14	6	3	5	+2	21
4	Vitesse	15	5	5	5	+7	20
5	Feyenoord	14	6	2	6	+1	20
6	Den Haag	14	5	3	6	-1	18
7	Heerenveen	15	5	3	7	-10	18
8	Roda	15	4	4	7	-11	16
9	Zwolle	14	4	3	7	-1	15
10	Heracles	13	4	3	6	-6	15
11	Utrecht	13	4	2	7	+0	14
12	Groningen	14	3	4	7	-13	13
13	Twente	15	3	3	9	-17	12
14	Nijmegen	14	2	5	7	-8	11
15	Willem II	14	2	4	8	-10	10
16	Excelsior	15	2	4	9	-16	10
17	Cambuur	15	1	4	10	-21	7
18	De Graafschap	14	1	2	11	-18	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.