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La Liga

Referee: Daniel Jesus Trujillo Suarez

Villarreal

U S S S T

1–2

Full-time

Alaves

T S U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Villarreal Alaves

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,2

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,7

2,3

Scored

1,7

1,2

Conceded

1,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,0

This season — La Liga · 22/22 matches

Win Ø 41%

50%

32%

Points per game

1,7

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

55%

41%

Both score Ø 41%

45%

36%

Average goals

2,7

2,3

Scored

1,5

0,9

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

70% Possession 30%

27 Shots 5

6 Shots on target 4

6 Blocked shots 0

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

13 Corners 2

2 Offside 2

16 Free kicks against 15

4 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Villarreal 5. · Alaves 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	22	18	4	0	+49	58
2	Ath Madrid	22	14	7	1	+24	49
3	Valencia	22	12	4	6	+16	40
4	Real Madrid	21	11	6	4	+24	39
5	Villarreal	22	11	4	7	+7	37
6	Sevilla	22	10	3	9	-6	33
7	Eibar	22	9	5	8	-3	32
8	Celta	22	9	4	9	+7	31
9	Girona	22	8	7	7	+2	31
10	Betis	22	9	3	10	-8	30
11	Getafe	22	7	8	7	+5	29
12	Leganes	21	8	5	8	-1	29
13	Ath Bilbao	23	6	10	7	-1	28
14	Sociedad	22	7	5	10	+1	26
15	Espanol	22	6	7	9	-10	25
16	Alaves	22	7	1	14	-13	22
17	Levante	22	3	11	8	-12	20
18	Las Palmas	23	5	3	15	-33	18
19	La Coruna	22	4	5	13	-27	17
20	Malaga	22	3	4	15	-21	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	10	9	1	0	+26	28
2	Ath Madrid	11	7	4	0	+11	25
3	Valencia	11	7	2	2	+12	23
4	Eibar	12	6	3	3	+10	21
5	Getafe	12	6	3	3	+9	21
6	Sevilla	10	6	3	1	+8	21
7	Real Madrid	11	6	2	3	+15	20
8	Villarreal	10	6	2	2	+11	20
9	Betis	12	6	2	4	-1	20
10	Espanol	12	5	3	4	+0	18
11	Girona	11	5	2	4	+5	17
12	Leganes	9	5	2	2	+2	17
13	Alaves	12	5	1	6	-4	16
14	Sociedad	12	4	3	5	+4	15
15	Celta	10	4	3	3	+2	15
16	Ath Bilbao	11	3	6	2	+2	15
17	Las Palmas	11	4	1	6	-10	13
18	Levante	12	2	5	5	-6	11
19	La Coruna	11	3	2	6	-7	11
20	Malaga	10	2	3	5	-6	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	12	9	3	0	+23	30
2	Ath Madrid	11	7	3	1	+13	24
3	Real Madrid	10	5	4	1	+9	19
4	Valencia	11	5	2	4	+4	17
5	Villarreal	12	5	2	5	-4	17
6	Celta	12	5	1	6	+5	16
7	Girona	11	3	5	3	-3	14
8	Ath Bilbao	12	3	4	5	-3	13
9	Leganes	12	3	3	6	-3	12
10	Sevilla	12	4	0	8	-14	12
11	Sociedad	10	3	2	5	-3	11
12	Eibar	10	3	2	5	-13	11
13	Betis	10	3	1	6	-7	10
14	Levante	10	1	6	3	-6	9
15	Getafe	10	1	5	4	-4	8
16	Espanol	10	1	4	5	-10	7
17	Alaves	10	2	0	8	-9	6
18	La Coruna	11	1	3	7	-20	6
19	Las Palmas	12	1	2	9	-23	5
20	Malaga	12	1	1	10	-15	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.