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Serie A

Referee: Luca Banti

Napoli

S S S S S

4–1

Full-time

Lazio

S S S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Napoli Lazio

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

100%

50%

Points per game

3,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

33%

83%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,5

3,7

Scored

2,0

2,5

Conceded

0,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+1,3

This season — Serie A · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 72%

83%

61%

Points per game

2,6

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 72%

57%

87%

Both score Ø 59%

43%

74%

Average goals

2,8

3,8

Scored

2,2

2,5

Conceded

0,6

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,6

+1,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

68% Possession 32%

17 Shots 5

7 Shots on target 1

3 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 4

2 Corners 2

2 Offside 4

5 Free kicks against 10

0 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Napoli 2. · Lazio 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	24	20	2	2	+46	62
2	Napoli	23	19	3	1	+36	60
3	Lazio	23	14	4	5	+29	46
4	Inter	23	12	9	2	+20	45
5	Roma	23	13	5	5	+16	44
6	Sampdoria	23	11	5	7	+10	38
7	Milan	24	11	5	8	+4	38
8	Atalanta	24	10	7	7	+8	37
9	Udinese	23	10	3	10	+4	33
10	Torino	23	7	12	4	+4	33
11	Fiorentina	24	8	7	9	+2	31
12	Bologna	23	8	3	12	-7	27
13	Genoa	23	6	6	11	-7	24
14	Cagliari	23	7	3	13	-12	24
15	Chievo	23	5	7	11	-19	22
16	Sassuolo	23	6	4	13	-27	22
17	Crotone	24	5	6	13	-22	21
18	Spal	24	3	8	13	-23	17
19	Verona	23	4	4	15	-24	16
20	Benevento	23	2	1	20	-38	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	12	10	1	1	+26	31
2	Napoli	11	8	2	1	+18	26
3	Sampdoria	12	8	2	2	+16	26
4	Inter	12	7	4	1	+13	25
5	Roma	12	7	1	4	+6	22
6	Atalanta	12	6	3	3	+8	21
7	Lazio	11	6	2	3	+16	20
8	Milan	11	6	2	3	+1	20
9	Torino	11	4	5	2	+7	17
10	Udinese	12	5	2	5	+4	17
11	Fiorentina	12	4	4	4	+0	16
12	Cagliari	12	4	1	7	-4	13
13	Chievo	11	3	4	4	-4	13
14	Crotone	12	3	4	5	-6	13
15	Bologna	12	3	3	6	-3	12
16	Spal	12	2	5	5	-9	11
17	Sassuolo	11	2	3	6	-9	9
18	Genoa	11	2	2	7	-7	8
19	Verona	12	2	1	9	-15	7
20	Benevento	12	2	1	9	-16	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	12	11	1	0	+18	34
2	Juventus	12	10	1	1	+20	31
3	Lazio	12	8	2	2	+13	26
4	Roma	11	6	4	1	+10	22
5	Inter	11	5	5	1	+7	20
6	Milan	13	5	3	5	+3	18
7	Udinese	11	5	1	5	+0	16
8	Atalanta	12	4	4	4	+0	16
9	Genoa	12	4	4	4	+0	16
10	Torino	12	3	7	2	-3	16
11	Fiorentina	12	4	3	5	+2	15
12	Bologna	11	5	0	6	-4	15
13	Sassuolo	12	4	1	7	-18	13
14	Sampdoria	11	3	3	5	-6	12
15	Cagliari	11	3	2	6	-8	11
16	Verona	11	2	3	6	-9	9
17	Chievo	12	2	3	7	-15	9
18	Crotone	12	2	2	8	-16	8
19	Spal	12	1	3	8	-14	6
20	Benevento	11	0	0	11	-22	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.