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Bundesliga

Referee: Benjamin Cortus

Hoffenheim

T U T T U

4–2

Full-time

Mainz

U T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Hoffenheim Mainz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,8

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,3

Scored

1,2

Conceded

2,2

Goal diff per game

-1,0

This season — Bundesliga · 21/21 matches

Win Ø 29%

33%

24%

Points per game

1,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

52%

48%

Both score Ø 60%

62%

57%

Average goals

3,1

2,9

Scored

1,5

1,1

Conceded

1,6

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

64% Possession 36%

24 Shots 6

9 Shots on target 2

4 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

5 Corners 2

3 Offside 0

13 Free kicks against 20

4 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Hoffenheim 9. · Mainz 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	21	17	2	2	+35	53
2	RB Leipzig	22	11	5	6	+6	38
3	Leverkusen	21	9	8	4	+14	35
4	Dortmund	21	9	7	5	+16	34
5	Schalke 04	21	9	7	5	+6	34
6	Ein Frankfurt	21	9	6	6	+3	33
7	Augsburg	22	8	7	7	+4	31
8	M'gladbach	21	9	4	8	-3	31
9	Hoffenheim	21	7	7	7	-1	28
10	Hannover	21	7	7	7	-2	28
11	Hertha	21	6	9	6	+0	27
12	Freiburg	21	5	10	6	-13	25
13	Wolfsburg	21	4	12	5	-1	24
14	Stuttgart	21	6	3	12	-10	21
15	Werder Bremen	21	4	8	9	-8	20
16	Mainz	21	5	5	11	-13	20
17	Hamburg	21	4	5	12	-13	17
18	FC Koln	21	3	4	14	-20	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	10	9	1	0	+24	28
2	RB Leipzig	11	7	3	1	+11	24
3	M'gladbach	11	6	2	3	+3	20
4	Leverkusen	10	5	4	1	+9	19
5	Augsburg	11	5	4	2	+7	19
6	Schalke 04	11	5	4	2	+5	19
7	Stuttgart	10	6	1	3	+3	19
8	Hannover	10	5	3	2	+6	18
9	Hoffenheim	10	5	3	2	+5	18
10	Freiburg	11	4	6	1	+3	18
11	Hertha	11	4	4	3	+1	16
12	Mainz	11	5	1	5	-2	16
13	Dortmund	10	4	3	3	+9	15
14	Wolfsburg	11	2	7	2	+0	13
15	Ein Frankfurt	10	3	3	4	+0	12
16	Hamburg	11	3	3	5	-3	12
17	Werder Bremen	10	2	4	4	-3	10
18	FC Koln	11	2	2	7	-9	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	11	8	1	2	+11	25
2	Ein Frankfurt	11	6	3	2	+3	21
3	Dortmund	11	5	4	2	+7	19
4	Leverkusen	11	4	4	3	+5	16
5	Schalke 04	10	4	3	3	+1	15
6	RB Leipzig	11	4	2	5	-5	14
7	Augsburg	11	3	3	5	-3	12
8	Hertha	10	2	5	3	-1	11
9	Wolfsburg	10	2	5	3	-1	11
10	M'gladbach	10	3	2	5	-6	11
11	Werder Bremen	11	2	4	5	-5	10
12	Hoffenheim	11	2	4	5	-6	10
13	Hannover	11	2	4	5	-8	10
14	Freiburg	10	1	4	5	-16	7
15	Hamburg	10	1	2	7	-10	5
16	FC Koln	10	1	2	7	-11	5
17	Mainz	10	0	4	6	-11	4
18	Stuttgart	11	0	2	9	-13	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.