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Premier League

Referee: Mike Jones

Man City

S T S S U

5–1

Full-time

Leicester

S U S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Leicester

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,3

2,2

Scored

2,2

1,3

Conceded

1,2

0,8

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,5

This season — Premier League · 26/26 matches

Win Ø 60%

85%

35%

Points per game

2,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 64%

73%

54%

Both score Ø 58%

54%

62%

Average goals

3,6

2,8

Scored

2,8

1,5

Conceded

0,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

+2,1

+0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

70% Possession 30%

19 Shots 2

11 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

8 Corners 2

1 Offside 2

10 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man City 1. · Leicester 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	26	22	3	1	+55	69
2	Man United	26	17	5	4	+33	56
3	Tottenham	27	15	7	5	+28	52
4	Liverpool	26	14	9	3	+28	51
5	Chelsea	26	15	5	6	+23	50
6	Arsenal	27	13	6	8	+15	45
7	Burnley	27	9	9	9	-3	36
8	Leicester	26	9	8	9	+3	35
9	Everton	27	9	7	11	-14	34
10	Bournemouth	26	8	7	11	-7	31
11	Watford	27	8	6	13	-10	30
12	West Ham	27	7	9	11	-12	30
13	Brighton	27	6	10	11	-14	28
14	Crystal Palace	27	6	9	12	-17	27
15	Swansea	27	7	6	14	-17	27
16	Southampton	26	5	11	10	-10	26
17	Newcastle	26	6	7	13	-12	25
18	Stoke	27	6	7	14	-26	25
19	Huddersfield	26	6	6	14	-27	24
20	West Brom	26	3	11	12	-16	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	13	12	1	0	+36	37
2	Man United	13	10	2	1	+24	32
3	Arsenal	13	10	2	1	+22	32
4	Tottenham	14	9	4	1	+20	31
5	Liverpool	13	7	6	0	+18	27
6	Chelsea	13	8	2	3	+11	26
7	Everton	14	8	2	4	+5	26
8	Leicester	13	6	3	4	+4	21
9	West Ham	13	5	4	4	-1	19
10	Stoke	14	5	4	5	-5	19
11	Bournemouth	13	5	3	5	-1	18
12	Burnley	13	5	3	5	-1	18
13	Brighton	13	4	6	3	-4	18
14	Crystal Palace	13	4	5	4	-3	17
15	Swansea	14	5	2	7	-7	17
16	Watford	13	4	4	5	-6	16
17	Huddersfield	13	4	4	5	-8	16
18	Southampton	14	3	6	5	-3	15
19	West Brom	13	2	7	4	-4	13
20	Newcastle	13	3	4	6	-4	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	13	10	2	1	+19	32
2	Chelsea	13	7	3	3	+12	24
3	Liverpool	13	7	3	3	+10	24
4	Man United	13	7	3	3	+9	24
5	Tottenham	13	6	3	4	+8	21
6	Burnley	14	4	6	4	-2	18
7	Leicester	13	3	5	5	-1	14
8	Watford	14	4	2	8	-4	14
9	Bournemouth	13	3	4	6	-6	13
10	Arsenal	14	3	4	7	-7	13
11	Newcastle	13	3	3	7	-8	12
12	Southampton	12	2	5	5	-7	11
13	West Ham	14	2	5	7	-11	11
14	Swansea	13	2	4	7	-10	10
15	Brighton	14	2	4	8	-10	10
16	Crystal Palace	14	2	4	8	-14	10
17	Everton	13	1	5	7	-19	8
18	Huddersfield	13	2	2	9	-19	8
19	West Brom	13	1	4	8	-12	7
20	Stoke	13	1	3	9	-21	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.