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La Liga

Referee: Alberto Undiano

Real Madrid

S U S T U

0–1

Full-time

Villarreal

T T S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Real Madrid Villarreal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,8

2,5

Scored

1,7

1,0

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,5

This season — La Liga · 17/18 matches

Win Ø 49%

53%

44%

Points per game

1,9

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 61%

71%

50%

Both score Ø 43%

47%

39%

Average goals

2,8

2,6

Scored

1,9

1,4

Conceded

0,9

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,9

+0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

58% Possession 42%

28 Shots 10

7 Shots on target 4

10 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 7

11 Corners 0

3 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Real Madrid 4. · Villarreal 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	18	15	3	0	+41	48
2	Ath Madrid	18	11	6	1	+19	39
3	Valencia	18	11	4	3	+20	37
4	Real Madrid	17	9	5	3	+16	32
5	Sevilla	18	9	2	7	-4	29
6	Villarreal	18	8	4	6	+4	28
7	Eibar	18	8	3	7	-6	27
8	Getafe	19	7	5	7	+5	26
9	Girona	19	7	5	7	+0	26
10	Ath Bilbao	18	6	6	6	+1	24
11	Leganes	17	7	3	7	-1	24
12	Betis	18	7	3	8	-4	24
13	Sociedad	18	6	5	7	+1	23
14	Espanol	18	6	5	7	-6	23
15	Celta	18	6	4	8	+5	22
16	Levante	18	3	9	6	-10	18
17	La Coruna	18	4	4	10	-15	16
18	Alaves	18	5	0	13	-14	15
19	Malaga	19	3	2	14	-20	11
20	Las Palmas	19	3	2	14	-32	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	9	8	1	0	+25	25
2	Valencia	10	7	2	1	+15	23
3	Sevilla	9	6	2	1	+8	20
4	Getafe	10	6	1	3	+9	19
5	Ath Madrid	8	5	3	0	+7	18
6	Real Madrid	9	5	2	2	+10	17
7	Eibar	9	5	2	2	+7	17
8	Espanol	9	5	1	3	+3	16
9	Villarreal	8	4	2	2	+8	14
10	Girona	10	4	2	4	+3	14
11	Betis	9	4	2	3	+2	14
12	Leganes	8	4	2	2	+1	14
13	Ath Bilbao	9	3	4	2	+2	13
14	Sociedad	9	3	3	3	+2	12
15	Celta	9	3	3	3	+1	12
16	Levante	10	2	4	4	-5	10
17	La Coruna	9	3	1	5	-6	10
18	Alaves	9	3	0	6	-6	9
19	Malaga	9	2	2	5	-6	8
20	Las Palmas	9	2	1	6	-12	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	9	7	2	0	+16	23
2	Ath Madrid	10	6	3	1	+12	21
3	Real Madrid	8	4	3	1	+6	15
4	Valencia	8	4	2	2	+5	14
5	Villarreal	10	4	2	4	-4	14
6	Girona	9	3	3	3	-3	12
7	Ath Bilbao	9	3	2	4	-1	11
8	Sociedad	9	3	2	4	-1	11
9	Celta	9	3	1	5	+4	10
10	Leganes	9	3	1	5	-2	10
11	Betis	9	3	1	5	-6	10
12	Eibar	9	3	1	5	-13	10
13	Sevilla	9	3	0	6	-12	9
14	Levante	8	1	5	2	-5	8
15	Getafe	9	1	4	4	-4	7
16	Espanol	9	1	4	4	-9	7
17	Alaves	9	2	0	7	-8	6
18	La Coruna	9	1	3	5	-9	6
19	Las Palmas	10	1	1	8	-20	4
20	Malaga	10	1	0	9	-14	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.