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Premier League

Referee: C Pawson

Newcastle

T S T U S

1–4

Full-time

Man United

U S T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Newcastle Man United

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,3

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,5

3,7

Scored

1,2

1,7

Conceded

1,3

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,3

This season — Premier League · 4/3 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

50%

100%

Both score Ø 75%

50%

100%

Average goals

2,8

5,3

Scored

1,5

1,7

Conceded

1,3

3,7

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-2,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

36% Possession 64%

7 Shots 28

4 Shots on target 14

1 Blocked shots 8

8 Goalkeeper saves 4

0 Corners 7

0 Offside 2

9 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Newcastle 9. · Man United 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Everton	5	4	1	0	+7	13
2	Liverpool	5	3	1	1	+0	10
3	Aston Villa	3	3	0	0	+9	9
4	Leicester	4	3	0	1	+5	9
5	Arsenal	5	3	0	2	+2	9
6	Chelsea	5	2	2	1	+4	8
7	Tottenham	4	2	1	1	+7	7
8	Leeds	4	2	1	1	+1	7
9	Newcastle	4	2	1	1	+1	7
10	Man City	4	2	1	1	+0	7
11	Southampton	5	2	1	2	-1	7
12	West Ham	4	2	0	2	+4	6
13	Crystal Palace	4	2	0	2	-2	6
14	Wolves	4	2	0	2	-3	6
15	Brighton	4	1	0	3	-2	3
16	Man United	3	1	0	2	-6	3
17	West Brom	4	0	1	3	-8	1
18	Burnley	3	0	0	3	-5	0
19	Sheffield United	4	0	0	4	-5	0
20	Fulham	4	0	0	4	-8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Everton	3	2	1	0	+5	7
2	Aston Villa	2	2	0	0	+6	6
3	Liverpool	2	2	0	0	+3	6
4	Arsenal	2	2	0	0	+2	6
5	Chelsea	3	1	1	1	+2	4
6	Leeds	2	1	1	0	+1	4
7	West Ham	2	1	0	1	+2	3
8	Crystal Palace	2	1	0	1	+0	3
9	Southampton	2	1	0	1	-1	3
10	Leicester	2	1	0	1	-1	3
11	Newcastle	2	1	0	1	-1	3
12	Wolves	2	1	0	1	-1	3
13	Man City	2	1	0	1	-2	3
14	Tottenham	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	West Brom	2	0	1	1	-3	1
16	Burnley	1	0	0	1	-1	0
17	Brighton	2	0	0	2	-3	0
18	Sheffield United	2	0	0	2	-3	0
19	Fulham	2	0	0	2	-6	0
20	Man United	2	0	0	2	-7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tottenham	2	2	0	0	+8	6
2	Leicester	2	2	0	0	+6	6
3	Everton	2	2	0	0	+2	6
4	Chelsea	2	1	1	0	+2	4
5	Man City	2	1	1	0	+2	4
6	Newcastle	2	1	1	0	+2	4
7	Southampton	3	1	1	1	+0	4
8	Liverpool	3	1	1	1	-3	4
9	Aston Villa	1	1	0	0	+3	3
10	West Ham	2	1	0	1	+2	3
11	Brighton	2	1	0	1	+1	3
12	Man United	1	1	0	0	+1	3
13	Arsenal	3	1	0	2	+0	3
14	Leeds	2	1	0	1	+0	3
15	Crystal Palace	2	1	0	1	-2	3
16	Wolves	2	1	0	1	-2	3
17	Fulham	2	0	0	2	-2	0
18	Sheffield United	2	0	0	2	-2	0
19	Burnley	2	0	0	2	-4	0
20	West Brom	2	0	0	2	-5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.