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Premier League

Referee: Anthony Taylor

Man United

T S S U T

3–2

Full-time

Newcastle

T T T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man United Newcastle

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,2

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,2

1,8

Scored

1,3

0,5

Conceded

1,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,8

This season — Premier League · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 22%

43%

Points per game

1,4

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 64%

71%

57%

Both score Ø 64%

71%

57%

Average goals

3,1

2,0

Scored

1,4

0,6

Conceded

1,7

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

73% Possession 27%

18 Shots 13

10 Shots on target 8

3 Blocked shots 0

6 Goalkeeper saves 7

10 Corners 6

1 Offside 0

16 Free kicks against 8

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man United 11. · Newcastle 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	7	6	1	0	+18	19
2	Liverpool	7	6	1	0	+12	19
3	Tottenham	8	6	0	2	+8	18
4	Chelsea	7	5	2	0	+10	17
5	Bournemouth	8	5	1	2	+4	16
6	Arsenal	7	5	0	2	+5	15
7	Wolves	8	4	3	1	+3	15
8	Watford	8	4	1	3	-1	13
9	Leicester	8	4	0	4	+2	12
10	Everton	8	3	3	2	+1	12
11	Man United	7	3	1	3	-2	10
12	Burnley	8	2	2	4	-2	8
13	Brighton	8	2	2	4	-4	8
14	Crystal Palace	8	2	1	5	-4	7
15	West Ham	8	2	1	5	-5	7
16	Southampton	7	1	2	4	-5	5
17	Fulham	7	1	2	4	-8	5
18	Huddersfield	8	0	3	5	-13	3
19	Newcastle	7	0	2	5	-6	2
20	Cardiff	8	0	2	6	-13	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	4	4	0	0	+11	12
2	Chelsea	4	3	1	0	+6	10
3	Bournemouth	4	3	1	0	+5	10
4	Liverpool	3	3	0	0	+8	9
5	Arsenal	4	3	0	1	+4	9
6	Watford	5	3	0	2	-1	9
7	Wolves	4	2	2	0	+3	8
8	Everton	4	2	1	1	+2	7
9	Brighton	4	2	1	1	+1	7
10	Leicester	4	2	0	2	+2	6
11	Tottenham	3	2	0	1	+2	6
12	Burnley	4	1	1	2	+0	4
13	Fulham	3	1	1	1	+0	4
14	West Ham	4	1	1	2	+0	4
15	Man United	3	1	1	1	-2	4
16	Southampton	3	0	2	1	-1	2
17	Crystal Palace	4	0	1	3	-5	1
18	Huddersfield	4	0	1	3	-6	1
19	Cardiff	4	0	1	3	-7	1
20	Newcastle	4	0	0	4	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tottenham	5	4	0	1	+6	12
2	Liverpool	4	3	1	0	+4	10
3	Man City	3	2	1	0	+7	7
4	Chelsea	3	2	1	0	+4	7
5	Wolves	4	2	1	1	+0	7
6	Arsenal	3	2	0	1	+1	6
7	Crystal Palace	4	2	0	2	+1	6
8	Man United	4	2	0	2	+0	6
9	Leicester	4	2	0	2	+0	6
10	Bournemouth	4	2	0	2	-1	6
11	Everton	4	1	2	1	-1	5
12	Watford	3	1	1	1	+0	4
13	Burnley	4	1	1	2	-2	4
14	Southampton	4	1	0	3	-4	3
15	West Ham	4	1	0	3	-5	3
16	Newcastle	3	0	2	1	-1	2
17	Huddersfield	4	0	2	2	-7	2
18	Brighton	4	0	1	3	-5	1
19	Cardiff	4	0	1	3	-6	1
20	Fulham	4	0	1	3	-8	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.