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Bundesliga

Referee: Patrick Ittrich

Dortmund

T S U S U

7–0

Full-time

Nurnberg

T U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Dortmund Nurnberg

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/4 matches

Win Ø 29%

33%

25%

Points per game

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,0

1,8

Scored

1,7

1,0

Conceded

1,3

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,3

This season — Bundesliga · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 38%

50%

25%

Points per game

2,0

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

50%

Both score Ø 63%

75%

50%

Average goals

2,8

1,8

Scored

2,0

1,0

Conceded

0,8

Goal diff per game

+1,3

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

72% Possession 28%

19 Shots 4

10 Shots on target 1

5 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 5

1 Offside 4

6 Free kicks against 10

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Dortmund 4. · Nurnberg 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	5	4	1	0	+9	13
2	Werder Bremen	5	3	2	0	+4	11
3	Hertha	5	3	1	1	+3	10
4	Dortmund	4	2	2	0	+5	8
5	Hoffenheim	5	2	1	2	+1	7
6	Wolfsburg	4	2	1	1	+1	7
7	M'gladbach	4	2	1	1	+1	7
8	Mainz	4	2	1	1	+1	7
9	Freiburg	5	2	1	2	-1	7
10	Leverkusen	5	2	0	3	-4	6
11	Nurnberg	4	1	2	1	+1	5
12	Augsburg	5	1	2	2	-1	5
13	Fortuna Dusseldorf	5	1	2	2	-1	5
14	RB Leipzig	4	1	2	1	-2	5
15	Ein Frankfurt	4	1	1	2	-1	4
16	Stuttgart	4	0	2	2	-4	2
17	Hannover	5	0	2	3	-5	2
18	Schalke 04	5	0	0	5	-7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	3	2	1	0	+4	7
2	Dortmund	2	2	0	0	+5	6
3	Hertha	2	2	0	0	+3	6
4	M'gladbach	2	2	0	0	+3	6
5	Mainz	2	2	0	0	+2	6
6	Werder Bremen	3	1	2	0	+2	5
7	Hoffenheim	2	1	1	0	+2	4
8	Nurnberg	2	1	1	0	+2	4
9	RB Leipzig	2	1	1	0	+1	4
10	Wolfsburg	3	1	1	1	-1	4
11	Freiburg	3	1	1	1	-1	4
12	Fortuna Dusseldorf	3	1	0	2	-1	3
13	Leverkusen	2	1	0	1	-1	3
14	Augsburg	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Ein Frankfurt	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Hannover	2	0	1	1	-2	1
17	Stuttgart	2	0	1	1	-3	1
18	Schalke 04	2	0	0	2	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	2	2	0	0	+5	6
2	Werder Bremen	2	2	0	0	+2	6
3	Hertha	3	1	1	1	+0	4
4	Augsburg	3	1	1	1	+0	4
5	Wolfsburg	1	1	0	0	+2	3
6	Freiburg	2	1	0	1	+0	3
7	Ein Frankfurt	2	1	0	1	+0	3
8	Hoffenheim	3	1	0	2	-1	3
9	Leverkusen	3	1	0	2	-3	3
10	Dortmund	2	0	2	0	+0	2
11	Fortuna Dusseldorf	2	0	2	0	+0	2
12	Stuttgart	2	0	1	1	-1	1
13	Nurnberg	2	0	1	1	-1	1
14	Mainz	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	M'gladbach	2	0	1	1	-2	1
16	Hannover	3	0	1	2	-3	1
17	RB Leipzig	2	0	1	1	-3	1
18	Schalke 04	3	0	0	3	-3	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.