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Championship

Referee: David Coote

Preston

T S U T T

0–1

Full-time

Derby

T T S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Preston Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

67%

17%

Average goals

2,3

1,7

Scored

1,0

0,5

Conceded

1,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,7

This season — Championship · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 0%

Points per game

0,0

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

50%

Both score Ø 25%

50%

Average goals

2,0

1,0

Scored

0,5

0,0

Conceded

1,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

-1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

49% Possession 51%

9 Shots 16

1 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

5 Corners 5

1 Offside 2

15 Free kicks against 7

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Preston 22. · Derby 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	QPR	2	2	0	0	+5	6
2	Huddersfield	2	2	0	0	+2	6
3	Bristol City	2	2	0	0	+2	6
4	Fulham	2	2	0	0	+2	6
5	Norwich	2	1	1	0	+3	4
6	Brighton	2	1	1	0	+3	4
7	Wolves	2	1	1	0	+2	4
8	Birmingham	2	1	1	0	+1	4
9	Sheffield Weds	2	1	1	0	+1	4
10	Wigan	2	1	0	1	+2	3
11	Aston Villa	2	1	0	1	+2	3
12	Brentford	2	1	0	1	+1	3
13	Ipswich	2	1	0	1	+0	3
14	Barnsley	2	1	0	1	+0	3
15	Reading	2	1	0	1	-1	3
16	Nott'm Forest	2	1	0	1	-2	3
17	Derby	2	0	1	1	-2	1
18	Cardiff	2	0	1	1	-2	1
19	Rotherham	2	0	1	1	-3	1
20	Burton Albion	2	0	0	2	-2	0
21	Newcastle	2	0	0	2	-2	0
22	Preston	2	0	0	2	-2	0
23	Leeds	2	0	0	2	-4	0
24	Blackburn	2	0	0	2	-6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brighton	1	1	0	0	+3	3
2	Aston Villa	1	1	0	0	+3	3
3	QPR	1	1	0	0	+3	3
4	Wigan	1	1	0	0	+3	3
5	Ipswich	1	1	0	0	+2	3
6	Wolves	1	1	0	0	+2	3
7	Brentford	1	1	0	0	+2	3
8	Barnsley	1	1	0	0	+2	3
9	Nott'm Forest	1	1	0	0	+1	3
10	Bristol City	1	1	0	0	+1	3
11	Huddersfield	1	1	0	0	+1	3
12	Fulham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
13	Reading	1	1	0	0	+1	3
14	Sheffield Weds	1	1	0	0	+1	3
15	Rotherham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
16	Norwich	1	0	1	0	+0	1
17	Birmingham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
18	Derby	1	0	1	0	+0	1
19	Newcastle	1	0	0	1	-1	0
20	Leeds	1	0	0	1	-1	0
21	Preston	1	0	0	1	-1	0
22	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-1	0
23	Cardiff	1	0	0	1	-2	0
24	Blackburn	1	0	0	1	-3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	1	1	0	0	+3	3
2	QPR	1	1	0	0	+2	3
3	Huddersfield	1	1	0	0	+1	3
4	Birmingham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
5	Fulham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
6	Bristol City	1	1	0	0	+1	3
7	Wolves	1	0	1	0	+0	1
8	Sheffield Weds	1	0	1	0	+0	1
9	Cardiff	1	0	1	0	+0	1
10	Brighton	1	0	1	0	+0	1
11	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-1	0
12	Wigan	1	0	0	1	-1	0
13	Brentford	1	0	0	1	-1	0
14	Newcastle	1	0	0	1	-1	0
15	Preston	1	0	0	1	-1	0
16	Aston Villa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
17	Barnsley	1	0	0	1	-2	0
18	Reading	1	0	0	1	-2	0
19	Ipswich	1	0	0	1	-2	0
20	Derby	1	0	0	1	-2	0
21	Nott'm Forest	1	0	0	1	-3	0
22	Rotherham	1	0	0	1	-3	0
23	Leeds	1	0	0	1	-3	0
24	Blackburn	1	0	0	1	-3	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.