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Championship

Referee: Keith Stroud

Newcastle

S T T S S

2–0

Full-time

Brighton

U U S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Newcastle Brighton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,7

2,3

Scored

1,8

1,5

Conceded

0,8

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,7

This season — Championship · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,5

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

50%

75%

Both score Ø 38%

50%

25%

Average goals

2,5

Scored

1,5

2,0

Conceded

1,0

0,5

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+1,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

55% Possession 45%

13 Shots 14

4 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

2 Corners 3

2 Offside 3

22 Free kicks against 13

4 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Newcastle 15. · Brighton 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Huddersfield	5	4	1	0	+4	13
2	Fulham	5	3	2	0	+3	11
3	Barnsley	5	3	0	2	+4	9
4	QPR	5	3	0	2	+3	9
5	Bristol City	5	3	0	2	+2	9
6	Nott'm Forest	5	3	0	2	+0	9
7	Brighton	4	2	2	0	+6	8
8	Wolves	5	2	2	1	+3	8
9	Birmingham	5	2	2	1	+2	8
10	Norwich	5	2	2	1	+1	8
11	Ipswich	5	2	2	1	+1	8
12	Burton Albion	5	2	1	2	+1	7
13	Brentford	5	2	1	2	+1	7
14	Reading	5	2	1	2	-3	7
15	Newcastle	4	2	0	2	+2	6
16	Aston Villa	5	1	2	2	+0	5
17	Cardiff	5	1	2	2	-2	5
18	Derby	5	1	2	2	-2	5
19	Sheffield Weds	5	1	2	2	-3	5
20	Wigan	5	1	1	3	+0	4
21	Leeds	5	1	1	3	-4	4
22	Rotherham	5	1	1	3	-9	4
23	Preston	5	1	0	4	-2	3
24	Blackburn	5	0	1	4	-8	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barnsley	3	3	0	0	+7	9
2	Nott'm Forest	3	3	0	0	+4	9
3	Huddersfield	3	3	0	0	+3	9
4	Ipswich	3	2	1	0	+3	7
5	Brentford	3	2	1	0	+3	7
6	Brighton	2	2	0	0	+6	6
7	Bristol City	3	2	0	1	+2	6
8	Burton Albion	3	2	0	1	+2	6
9	Aston Villa	2	1	1	0	+3	4
10	Wigan	3	1	1	1	+2	4
11	Wolves	2	1	1	0	+2	4
12	Birmingham	3	1	1	1	+1	4
13	Fulham	2	1	1	0	+1	4
14	Reading	2	1	1	0	+1	4
15	Rotherham	2	1	1	0	+1	4
16	Norwich	2	1	1	0	+1	4
17	Newcastle	2	1	0	1	+2	3
18	QPR	2	1	0	1	+1	3
19	Sheffield Weds	2	1	0	1	-1	3
20	Cardiff	3	1	0	2	-2	3
21	Derby	2	0	2	0	+0	2
22	Leeds	2	0	1	1	-1	1
23	Blackburn	3	0	1	2	-4	1
24	Preston	2	0	0	2	-2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fulham	3	2	1	0	+2	7
2	QPR	3	2	0	1	+2	6
3	Wolves	3	1	1	1	+1	4
4	Huddersfield	2	1	1	0	+1	4
5	Birmingham	2	1	1	0	+1	4
6	Norwich	3	1	1	1	+0	4
7	Bristol City	2	1	0	1	+0	3
8	Preston	3	1	0	2	+0	3
9	Newcastle	2	1	0	1	+0	3
10	Derby	3	1	0	2	-2	3
11	Leeds	3	1	0	2	-3	3
12	Reading	3	1	0	2	-4	3
13	Cardiff	2	0	2	0	+0	2
14	Brighton	2	0	2	0	+0	2
15	Sheffield Weds	3	0	2	1	-2	2
16	Burton Albion	2	0	1	1	-1	1
17	Ipswich	2	0	1	1	-2	1
18	Aston Villa	3	0	1	2	-3	1
19	Wigan	2	0	0	2	-2	0
20	Brentford	2	0	0	2	-2	0
21	Barnsley	2	0	0	2	-3	0
22	Blackburn	2	0	0	2	-4	0
23	Nott'm Forest	2	0	0	2	-4	0
24	Rotherham	3	0	0	3	-10	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.