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Premier League

Referee: Robert Madley

Man United

U S U U S

2–0

Full-time

Chelsea

S S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man United Chelsea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

50%

83%

Points per game

2,0

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

33%

100%

Both score Ø 75%

50%

100%

Average goals

2,2

3,3

Scored

1,7

2,2

Conceded

0,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+1,0

This season — Premier League · 30/31 matches

Win Ø 64%

50%

77%

Points per game

1,9

2,4

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

40%

68%

Both score Ø 55%

57%

52%

Average goals

2,3

2,9

Scored

1,5

2,1

Conceded

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+1,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

46% Possession 54%

9 Shots 5

3 Shots on target 0

0 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 1

1 Corners 3

1 Offside 1

16 Free kicks against 20

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man United 6. · Chelsea 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	31	24	3	4	+40	75
2	Tottenham	32	21	8	3	+46	71
3	Liverpool	33	19	9	5	+29	66
4	Man City	32	19	7	6	+28	64
5	Everton	33	16	9	8	+23	57
6	Man United	30	15	12	3	+22	57
7	Arsenal	30	16	6	8	+22	54
8	West Brom	33	12	8	13	-3	44
9	Southampton	31	11	7	13	-3	40
10	Watford	32	11	7	14	-15	40
11	Stoke	33	10	9	14	-11	39
12	Leicester	32	10	7	15	-12	37
13	West Ham	33	10	7	16	-15	37
14	Burnley	33	10	6	17	-14	36
15	Crystal Palace	32	10	5	17	-8	35
16	Bournemouth	33	9	8	16	-18	35
17	Hull	33	8	6	19	-33	30
18	Swansea	33	8	4	21	-31	28
19	Middlesbrough	31	4	12	15	-15	24
20	Sunderland	32	5	6	21	-32	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tottenham	17	15	2	0	+35	47
2	Everton	17	12	4	1	+28	40
3	Chelsea	15	13	0	2	+28	39
4	Liverpool	16	11	4	1	+25	37
5	Arsenal	15	10	3	2	+16	33
6	Burnley	16	10	2	4	+9	32
7	Man City	15	8	6	1	+12	30
8	Leicester	16	9	3	4	+8	30
9	West Brom	17	9	2	6	+7	29
10	Watford	17	8	4	5	+2	28
11	Man United	16	6	9	1	+10	27
12	Stoke	17	7	5	5	+3	26
13	Hull	16	7	4	5	-1	25
14	Bournemouth	16	7	3	6	+1	24
15	Southampton	15	6	4	5	-1	22
16	West Ham	16	6	3	7	-9	21
17	Swansea	16	5	3	8	-11	18
18	Crystal Palace	16	5	2	9	-2	17
19	Middlesbrough	15	3	5	7	-5	14
20	Sunderland	17	3	5	9	-15	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	16	11	3	2	+12	36
2	Man City	17	11	1	5	+16	34
3	Man United	14	9	3	2	+12	30
4	Liverpool	17	8	5	4	+4	29
5	Tottenham	15	6	6	3	+11	24
6	Arsenal	15	6	3	6	+6	21
7	Southampton	16	5	3	8	-2	18
8	Crystal Palace	16	5	3	8	-6	18
9	Everton	16	4	5	7	-5	17
10	West Ham	17	4	4	9	-6	16
11	West Brom	16	3	6	7	-10	15
12	Stoke	16	3	4	9	-14	13
13	Watford	15	3	3	9	-17	12
14	Bournemouth	17	2	5	10	-19	11
15	Middlesbrough	16	1	7	8	-10	10
16	Swansea	17	3	1	13	-20	10
17	Sunderland	15	2	1	12	-17	7
18	Leicester	16	1	4	11	-20	7
19	Hull	17	1	2	14	-32	5
20	Burnley	17	0	4	13	-23	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.