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Eredivisie

Referee: E van de Graaf

AZ Alkmaar

U S U U U

3–3

Full-time

NAC Breda

U U T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

AZ Alkmaar NAC Breda

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,7

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,2

1,8

Scored

2,2

0,7

Conceded

1,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,2

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 33/33 matches

Win Ø 30%

42%

18%

Points per game

1,5

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

64%

48%

Both score Ø 55%

64%

45%

Average goals

3,1

2,6

Scored

1,7

1,0

Conceded

1,5

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

1,45 xG 2,08

55% Possession 45%

16 Shots 17

10 Shots on target 11

2 Blocked shots 2

7 Goalkeeper saves 7

7 Corners 6

1 Offside 3

11 Free kicks against 6

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match AZ Alkmaar 6. · NAC Breda 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	33	26	3	4	+52	+31.9	81
2	Feyenoord	33	18	8	7	+24	+27.2	62
3	Twente	33	15	13	5	+23	+28.4	58
4	Nijmegen	33	15	11	7	+23	+10.7	56
5	Ajax	31	13	13	5	+20	+8.1	52
6	AZ Alkmaar	33	14	9	10	+7	+20.2	51
7	Heerenveen	32	14	7	11	+4	+9.5	49
8	Utrecht	31	13	7	11	+10	+2.4	46
9	Groningen	32	13	6	13	+5	+11.1	45
10	Sparta Rotterdam	33	12	7	14	-21	-8.8	43
11	For Sittard	33	11	6	16	-12	-17.3	39
12	Go Ahead Eagles	33	8	14	11	+2	-17.1	38
13	Zwolle	33	9	10	14	-25	-18.0	37
14	Excelsior	33	9	8	16	-14	-13.8	35
15	Telstar	33	8	10	15	-7	-12.3	34
16	Volendam	33	8	8	17	-19	-24.1	32
17	NAC Breda	33	6	10	17	-23	-12.1	28
18	Heracles	33	5	4	24	-49	-25.9	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	16	12	2	2	+28	+18.5	38
2	Feyenoord	17	11	3	3	+16	+18.7	36
3	Twente	17	9	5	3	+13	+18.3	32
4	AZ Alkmaar	16	8	6	2	+13	+15.3	30
5	Utrecht	15	9	2	4	+16	+9.8	29
6	Nijmegen	16	8	5	3	+15	+10.9	29
7	Heerenveen	16	8	5	3	+9	+13.1	29
8	Ajax	15	8	4	3	+14	+12.6	28
9	Zwolle	16	8	4	4	+2	+0.4	28
10	Go Ahead Eagles	17	6	7	4	+10	+2.8	25
11	Groningen	17	7	4	6	+9	+6.5	25
12	For Sittard	17	7	4	6	-1	-1.8	25
13	Volendam	16	6	5	5	+2	-3.5	23
14	Sparta Rotterdam	16	6	5	5	-5	+0.3	23
15	Telstar	17	5	5	7	+3	-0.8	20
16	NAC Breda	17	5	5	7	-3	+2.5	20
17	Excelsior	17	5	3	9	-2	-2.5	18
18	Heracles	16	4	3	9	-12	-6.4	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	17	14	1	2	+24	+13.3	43
2	Nijmegen	17	7	6	4	+8	-0.2	27
3	Twente	16	6	8	2	+10	+10.1	26
4	Feyenoord	16	7	5	4	+8	+8.4	26
5	Ajax	16	5	9	2	+6	-4.5	24
6	AZ Alkmaar	17	6	3	8	-6	+4.9	21
7	Groningen	15	6	2	7	-4	+4.6	20
8	Heerenveen	16	6	2	8	-5	-3.7	20
9	Sparta Rotterdam	17	6	2	9	-16	-9.1	20
10	Utrecht	16	4	5	7	-6	-7.4	17
11	Excelsior	16	4	5	7	-12	-11.3	17
12	Telstar	16	3	5	8	-10	-11.5	14
13	For Sittard	16	4	2	10	-11	-15.5	14
14	Go Ahead Eagles	16	2	7	7	-8	-19.8	13
15	Volendam	17	2	3	12	-21	-20.6	9
16	Zwolle	17	1	6	10	-27	-18.3	9
17	NAC Breda	16	1	5	10	-20	-14.6	8
18	Heracles	17	1	1	15	-37	-19.5	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.