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Primeira Liga

Referee: L M Branco Godinho

Estrela

U S T T U

2–2

Full-time

Gil Vicente

S S S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Estrela Gil Vicente

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

33%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,0

3,5

Scored

0,5

1,8

Conceded

1,5

1,7

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 24/24 matches

Win Ø 34%

21%

46%

Points per game

1,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

50%

46%

Both score Ø 46%

46%

Average goals

2,8

2,4

Scored

1,1

1,5

Conceded

1,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,6

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,22 xG 1,91

47% Possession 53%

9 Shots 19

5 Shots on target 6

2 Blocked shots 7

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

0 Corners 8

7 Offside 0

16 Free kicks against 17

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Estrela 12. · Gil Vicente 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	24	21	2	1	+39	+30.6	65
2	Sp Lisbon	25	19	5	1	+50	+36.1	62
3	Benfica	24	17	7	0	+37	+30.1	58
4	Sp Braga	25	13	7	5	+27	+22.3	46
5	Gil Vicente	24	11	7	6	+12	+8.4	40
6	Famalicao	25	11	6	8	+9	+5.9	39
7	Moreirense	25	10	5	10	-4	-11.0	35
8	Estoril	25	9	7	9	+4	-5.8	34
9	Guimaraes	24	9	5	10	-7	-5.5	32
10	Alverca	25	7	7	11	-15	-2.7	28
11	Arouca	25	7	5	13	-21	-20.5	26
12	Estrela	24	5	9	10	-15	-10.7	24
13	Casa Pia	25	5	9	11	-18	-19.7	24
14	Nacional	25	5	7	13	-8	-8.3	22
15	Rio Ave	24	4	9	11	-21	-19.5	21
16	Santa Clara	24	4	7	13	-11	+0.5	19
17	Tondela	24	4	7	13	-19	-6.9	19
18	AVS	25	1	7	17	-39	-23.1	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	12	10	2	0	+20	+18.0	32
2	Sp Lisbon	12	10	1	1	+32	+22.4	31
3	Benfica	12	8	4	0	+20	+18.9	28
4	Sp Braga	12	7	3	2	+16	+13.3	24
5	Famalicao	13	7	2	4	+13	+7.0	23
6	Gil Vicente	12	7	2	3	+10	+5.8	23
7	Estoril	13	6	5	2	+9	-2.0	23
8	Guimaraes	13	6	4	3	+2	-2.5	22
9	Moreirense	12	6	2	4	-1	-5.6	20
10	Alverca	13	5	4	4	-5	+5.3	19
11	Arouca	12	4	3	5	-6	-6.9	15
12	Estrela	12	3	4	5	-5	-0.1	13
13	Casa Pia	12	2	6	4	-6	-10.2	12
14	Nacional	12	3	2	7	-3	-4.5	11
15	Santa Clara	12	3	2	7	-4	+2.3	11
16	Rio Ave	12	2	4	6	-9	-5.4	10
17	Tondela	12	1	5	6	-7	-4.0	8
18	AVS	13	1	4	8	-13	-8.5	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	12	11	0	1	+19	+12.6	33
2	Sp Lisbon	13	9	4	0	+18	+13.6	31
3	Benfica	12	9	3	0	+17	+11.1	30
4	Sp Braga	13	6	4	3	+11	+9.0	22
5	Gil Vicente	12	4	5	3	+2	+2.5	17
6	Famalicao	12	4	4	4	-4	-1.1	16
7	Moreirense	13	4	3	6	-3	-5.4	15
8	Casa Pia	13	3	3	7	-12	-9.5	12
9	Estoril	12	3	2	7	-5	-3.8	11
10	Nacional	13	2	5	6	-5	-3.8	11
11	Estrela	12	2	5	5	-10	-10.5	11
12	Rio Ave	12	2	5	5	-12	-14.1	11
13	Tondela	12	3	2	7	-12	-2.9	11
14	Arouca	13	3	2	8	-15	-13.6	11
15	Guimaraes	11	3	1	7	-9	-3.0	10
16	Alverca	12	2	3	7	-10	-8.0	9
17	Santa Clara	12	1	5	6	-7	-1.8	8
18	AVS	12	0	3	9	-26	-14.6	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.