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Primeira Liga

Referee: João Pedro Pinheiro

Estrela

T T U S U

1–4

Full-time

Arouca

T U S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Estrela Arouca

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,5

3,0

Scored

1,2

1,8

Conceded

1,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 14/14 matches

Win Ø 25%

29%

21%

Points per game

1,1

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

36%

43%

Both score Ø 47%

50%

43%

Average goals

2,4

2,6

Scored

1,1

1,3

Conceded

1,3

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,94 xG 3,93

38% Possession 62%

6 Shots 18

2 Shots on target 5

0 Blocked shots 4

4 Goalkeeper saves 0

3 Corners 5

2 Offside 1

6 Free kicks against 12

0 Yellow cards 2

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Estrela 9. · Arouca 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	14	11	1	2	+15	+12.3	34
2	Benfica	14	10	3	1	+15	+16.6	33
3	Porto	14	10	1	3	+10	+7.7	31
4	Sp Braga	14	9	2	3	+15	+10.8	29
5	Guimaraes	15	9	2	4	+8	+2.6	29
6	Moreirense	15	7	5	3	+7	+0.1	26
7	Farense	14	5	3	6	+4	-8.0	18
8	Famalicao	14	4	6	4	-2	-4.1	18
9	Estrela	14	4	4	6	-3	-2.5	16
10	Casa Pia	14	4	4	6	-4	-3.7	16
11	Boavista	14	4	4	6	-7	-5.0	16
12	Portimonense	14	4	3	7	-16	-7.0	15
13	Estoril	14	4	2	8	+1	-4.9	14
14	Arouca	14	3	4	7	-1	-2.1	13
15	Gil Vicente	14	3	3	8	-4	-6.0	12
16	Rio Ave	15	2	6	7	-8	+3.5	12
17	Vizela	15	2	6	7	-8	-3.1	12
18	Chaves	14	3	1	10	-22	-7.2	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	8	8	0	0	+13	+9.5	24
2	Guimaraes	8	6	0	2	+9	+5.7	18
3	Benfica	6	4	2	0	+8	+10.0	14
4	Sp Braga	7	4	1	2	+9	+10.7	13
5	Porto	6	4	1	1	+4	+9.5	13
6	Gil Vicente	7	3	3	1	+8	-2.3	12
7	Farense	8	3	2	3	+4	-0.8	11
8	Moreirense	7	3	2	2	+3	+0.4	11
9	Famalicao	7	3	2	2	-1	-1.4	11
10	Estoril	6	3	1	2	+8	+2.4	10
11	Estrela	7	3	0	4	-1	-0.2	9
12	Rio Ave	8	2	3	3	-2	+3.3	9
13	Boavista	8	2	3	3	-4	-2.0	9
14	Arouca	8	2	2	4	-1	-0.6	8
15	Portimonense	6	2	2	2	-3	-1.9	8
16	Chaves	7	2	1	4	-4	+0.1	7
17	Vizela	8	1	3	4	-5	-0.3	6
18	Casa Pia	6	1	2	3	-2	-2.1	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	8	6	1	1	+7	+6.6	19
2	Porto	8	6	0	2	+6	-1.7	18
3	Sp Braga	7	5	1	1	+6	+0.0	16
4	Moreirense	8	4	3	1	+4	-0.3	15
5	Guimaraes	7	3	2	2	-1	-3.1	11
6	Casa Pia	8	3	2	3	-2	-1.6	11
7	Sp Lisbon	6	3	1	2	+2	+2.8	10
8	Farense	6	2	1	3	+0	-7.2	7
9	Famalicao	7	1	4	2	-1	-2.8	7
10	Estrela	7	1	4	2	-2	-2.3	7
11	Boavista	6	2	1	3	-3	-3.0	7
12	Portimonense	8	2	1	5	-13	-5.1	7
13	Vizela	7	1	3	3	-3	-2.8	6
14	Arouca	6	1	2	3	+0	-1.6	5
15	Estoril	8	1	1	6	-7	-7.3	4
16	Rio Ave	7	0	3	4	-6	+0.2	3
17	Chaves	7	1	0	6	-18	-7.2	3
18	Gil Vicente	7	0	0	7	-12	-3.7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.