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Ligue 1

Referee: J Stinat

Metz

T T U U T

1–3

Full-time

Paris FC

U U S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Metz Paris FC

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,3

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,5

Scored

0,7

1,7

Conceded

1,8

0,8

Goal diff per game

-1,2

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 29/29 matches

Win Ø 19%

10%

28%

Points per game

0,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

59%

52%

Both score Ø 55%

48%

62%

Average goals

3,1

2,8

Scored

0,9

1,3

Conceded

2,2

1,6

Goal diff per game

-1,3

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,01 xG 1,74

51% Possession 49%

13 Shots 15

6 Shots on target 7

4 Blocked shots 1

4 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 5

1 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 8

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Metz 18. · Paris FC 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	27	20	3	4	+38	+35.0	63
2	Lens	29	20	2	7	+28	+20.1	62
3	Lille	30	16	6	8	+15	+15.4	54
4	Marseille	30	16	4	10	+18	+14.5	52
5	Lyon	29	15	6	8	+14	+6.1	51
6	Rennes	29	14	8	7	+8	+1.0	50
7	Monaco	30	15	5	10	+7	+9.1	50
8	Strasbourg	28	12	7	9	+12	+12.5	43
9	Lorient	30	10	11	9	-4	-1.9	41
10	Toulouse	30	10	7	13	-1	-1.7	37
11	Brest	28	10	6	12	-6	-2.5	36
12	Paris FC	29	8	11	10	-8	-13.0	35
13	Angers	30	9	7	14	-14	-19.3	34
14	Le Havre	30	6	12	12	-13	-11.8	30
15	Nice	30	7	8	15	-22	-15.8	29
16	Auxerre	30	5	10	15	-14	-9.3	25
17	Nantes	28	4	7	17	-21	-14.3	19
18	Metz	29	3	6	20	-37	-24.2	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lens	15	13	0	2	+23	+20.3	39
2	Paris SG	13	11	1	1	+26	+18.3	34
3	Marseille	15	10	3	2	+19	+12.4	33
4	Monaco	16	10	2	4	+11	+9.8	32
5	Lyon	14	10	1	3	+13	+7.3	31
6	Lorient	15	8	6	1	+9	+4.7	30
7	Rennes	15	8	4	3	+11	+7.3	28
8	Lille	15	8	4	3	+9	+11.9	28
9	Strasbourg	14	8	3	3	+14	+15.1	27
10	Brest	14	7	3	4	+6	+7.2	24
11	Le Havre	15	5	7	3	+3	+0.8	22
12	Angers	15	6	4	5	+1	-5.2	22
13	Toulouse	15	5	5	5	+0	+5.2	20
14	Paris FC	14	5	4	5	-3	-3.7	19
15	Nice	15	4	6	5	-8	-4.0	18
16	Auxerre	15	4	4	7	-2	+0.5	16
17	Metz	14	2	4	8	-10	-1.3	10
18	Nantes	14	2	2	10	-12	-7.3	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	14	9	2	3	+12	+16.7	29
2	Lille	15	8	2	5	+6	+3.5	26
3	Lens	14	7	2	5	+5	-0.2	23
4	Rennes	14	6	4	4	-3	-6.3	22
5	Lyon	15	5	5	5	+1	-1.1	20
6	Marseille	15	6	1	8	-1	+2.1	19
7	Monaco	14	5	3	6	-4	-0.7	18
8	Toulouse	15	5	2	8	-1	-6.9	17
9	Strasbourg	14	4	4	6	-2	-2.6	16
10	Paris FC	15	3	7	5	-5	-9.4	16
11	Brest	14	3	3	8	-12	-9.7	12
12	Angers	15	3	3	9	-15	-14.1	12
13	Nantes	14	2	5	7	-9	-6.9	11
14	Lorient	15	2	5	8	-13	-6.5	11
15	Nice	15	3	2	10	-14	-11.8	11
16	Auxerre	15	1	6	8	-12	-9.8	9
17	Le Havre	15	1	5	9	-16	-12.7	8
18	Metz	15	1	2	12	-27	-22.9	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.