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Primeira Liga

Referee: Fábio Veríssimo

Estrela

U T S T T

2–1

Full-time

Arouca

T T U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Estrela Arouca

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,2

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

4,0

3,0

Scored

1,3

Conceded

2,7

1,7

Goal diff per game

-1,3

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 12/12 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,8

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

50%

42%

Both score Ø 38%

42%

33%

Average goals

2,6

2,3

Scored

0,8

0,5

Conceded

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,9

-1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,07 xG 1,07

46% Possession 54%

10 Shots 10

2 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

2 Corners 7

6 Offside 2

13 Free kicks against 19

4 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Estrela 16. · Arouca 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	13	11	0	2	+32	+26.8	33
2	Benfica	12	10	1	1	+24	+14.6	31
3	Porto	13	10	1	2	+22	+16.0	31
4	Santa Clara	13	9	0	4	+4	+8.3	27
5	Sp Braga	13	7	3	3	+9	+10.4	24
6	Guimaraes	13	6	3	4	+4	+1.0	21
7	Moreirense	13	6	2	5	+1	+1.5	20
8	Famalicao	13	4	6	3	+2	-3.7	18
9	Rio Ave	13	4	3	6	-10	-8.7	15
10	Casa Pia	13	3	5	5	-6	-3.4	14
11	Estoril	13	3	5	5	-7	-13.6	14
12	Gil Vicente	13	3	4	6	-8	-7.5	13
13	Boavista	13	2	5	6	-8	-1.3	11
14	AVS	13	2	5	6	-11	-7.7	11
15	Nacional	12	2	3	7	-10	-0.4	9
16	Estrela	12	2	3	7	-11	-8.2	9
17	Farense	13	2	3	8	-12	-12.2	9
18	Arouca	12	2	2	8	-15	-11.9	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	7	7	0	0	+20	+10.3	21
2	Porto	7	7	0	0	+17	+15.9	21
3	Santa Clara	7	6	0	1	+4	+7.9	18
4	Sp Lisbon	6	5	0	1	+12	+11.3	15
5	Moreirense	6	4	2	0	+5	-1.5	14
6	Guimaraes	6	4	1	1	+4	+3.1	13
7	Rio Ave	6	3	3	0	+3	+3.4	12
8	Gil Vicente	6	3	2	1	+5	+0.1	11
9	Sp Braga	7	3	2	2	+4	+7.3	11
10	Estoril	7	3	2	2	-1	-6.5	11
11	Famalicao	7	2	4	1	+0	-1.3	10
12	Casa Pia	7	2	3	2	+0	+1.6	9
13	Estrela	6	2	2	2	-1	-1.8	8
14	AVS	7	2	2	3	-5	-5.8	8
15	Nacional	5	2	1	2	-4	-1.2	7
16	Farense	6	2	0	4	-6	-3.7	6
17	Arouca	6	1	1	4	-6	-6.4	4
18	Boavista	6	0	2	4	-8	-0.8	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	7	6	0	1	+20	+15.4	18
2	Sp Braga	6	4	1	1	+5	+3.1	13
3	Porto	6	3	1	2	+5	+0.1	10
4	Benfica	5	3	1	1	+4	+4.3	10
5	Santa Clara	6	3	0	3	+0	+0.5	9
6	Boavista	7	2	3	2	+0	-0.5	9
7	Famalicao	6	2	2	2	+2	-2.4	8
8	Guimaraes	7	2	2	3	+0	-2.0	8
9	Moreirense	7	2	0	5	-4	+3.0	6
10	Casa Pia	6	1	2	3	-6	-5.0	5
11	Arouca	6	1	1	4	-9	-5.5	4
12	AVS	6	0	3	3	-6	-2.0	3
13	Estoril	6	0	3	3	-6	-7.1	3
14	Farense	7	0	3	4	-6	-8.5	3
15	Rio Ave	7	1	0	6	-13	-12.1	3
16	Nacional	7	0	2	5	-6	+0.8	2
17	Gil Vicente	7	0	2	5	-13	-7.7	2
18	Estrela	6	0	1	5	-10	-6.4	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.