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Super League

Referee: J Manzano

AEK

T S S T S

3–0

Full-time

PAOK

S U S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

AEK PAOK

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,7

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,8

2,2

Scored

1,5

1,7

Conceded

1,3

0,5

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Super League · 29/29 matches

Win Ø 66%

69%

62%

Points per game

2,3

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

38%

55%

Both score Ø 36%

34%

38%

Average goals

2,4

2,5

Scored

1,8

1,9

Conceded

0,6

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,37 xG 0,63

39% Possession 61%

20 Shots 8

6 Shots on target 1

6 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 3

2 Offside 1

25 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match AEK 1. · PAOK 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	AEK	29	20	7	2	+34	+9.6	67
2	PAOK	29	18	8	3	+37	+7.2	62
3	Olympiakos	29	18	8	3	+34	+11.9	62
4	Panathinaikos	29	15	9	5	+20	+8.6	54
5	Levadeiakos	31	12	10	9	+12	-8.4	46
6	OFI Crete	30	13	3	14	-4	-6.9	42
7	Atromitos	31	8	11	12	-4	-0.4	35
8	Aris Thessalonikis	28	7	13	8	-6	-1.4	34
9	Aris	28	7	13	8	-6	–	34
10	Panetolikos	31	9	6	16	-13	-3.6	33
11	Volos NFC	31	9	6	16	-16	+1.4	33
12	Kifisia	31	6	12	13	-12	-1.1	30
13	Larisa	31	5	11	15	-21	-5.9	26
14	Panserraikos	31	6	8	17	-37	-5.2	26
15	Asteras Tripolis	31	4	11	16	-18	-5.8	23

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PAOK	15	12	3	0	+26	+4.8	39
2	AEK	14	12	1	1	+21	+5.9	37
3	Olympiakos	15	10	3	2	+19	+4.9	33
4	Panathinaikos	14	9	4	1	+17	+3.9	31
5	Levadeiakos	16	8	5	3	+17	-3.6	29
6	OFI Crete	15	8	0	7	+8	-2.7	24
7	Volos NFC	15	5	6	4	-3	+4.3	21
8	Aris Thessalonikis	14	3	9	2	+0	+4.0	18
9	Aris	14	3	9	2	+0	–	18
10	Kifisia	16	4	5	7	-3	+1.8	17
11	Atromitos	16	3	6	7	-4	+1.1	15
12	Larisa	15	3	6	6	-9	+0.5	15
13	Asteras Tripolis	15	3	5	7	-2	-1.6	14
14	Panetolikos	16	4	2	10	-10	+0.7	14
15	Panserraikos	15	3	4	8	-16	-3.6	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	AEK	15	8	6	1	+13	+3.7	30
2	Olympiakos	14	8	5	1	+15	+7.0	29
3	PAOK	14	6	5	3	+11	+2.4	23
4	Panathinaikos	15	6	5	4	+3	+4.7	23
5	Atromitos	15	5	5	5	+0	-1.5	20
6	Panetolikos	15	5	4	6	-3	-4.3	19
7	OFI Crete	15	5	3	7	-12	-4.2	18
8	Levadeiakos	15	4	5	6	-5	-4.9	17
9	Aris Thessalonikis	14	4	4	6	-6	-5.3	16
10	Aris	14	4	4	6	-6	–	16
11	Kifisia	15	2	7	6	-9	-3.0	13
12	Panserraikos	16	3	4	9	-21	-1.5	13
13	Volos NFC	16	4	0	12	-13	-2.9	12
14	Larisa	16	2	5	9	-12	-6.4	11
15	Asteras Tripolis	16	1	6	9	-16	-4.2	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.