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Primeira Liga

Referee: J Goncalves

Nacional

T T U T T

2–0

Full-time

Estrela

T U U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nacional Estrela

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,2

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

1,8

2,7

Scored

0,3

1,3

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,2

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 21%

19%

22%

Points per game

0,8

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

48%

56%

Both score Ø 52%

56%

48%

Average goals

2,5

2,9

Scored

1,1

1,2

Conceded

1,4

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,96 xG 0,53

49% Possession 51%

16 Shots 11

4 Shots on target 2

7 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 6

1 Offside 5

14 Free kicks against 8

4 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nacional 16. · Estrela 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	27	23	3	1	+43	+33.6	72
2	Sp Lisbon	27	21	5	1	+55	+38.6	68
3	Benfica	27	19	8	0	+41	+30.1	65
4	Sp Braga	26	13	7	6	+26	+22.1	46
5	Gil Vicente	28	12	9	7	+14	+9.9	45
6	Famalicao	27	13	6	8	+11	+8.2	45
7	Estoril	27	10	7	10	+4	-6.0	37
8	Guimaraes	28	10	5	13	-8	-4.8	35
9	Moreirense	27	10	5	12	-8	-14.1	35
10	Rio Ave	27	7	9	11	-18	-16.9	30
11	Alverca	27	7	8	12	-18	-2.1	29
12	Arouca	27	8	5	14	-21	-19.0	29
13	Santa Clara	28	7	7	14	-9	-1.8	28
14	Estrela	27	6	10	11	-12	-9.7	28
15	Casa Pia	26	5	9	12	-22	-22.8	24
16	Nacional	27	5	7	15	-10	-9.9	22
17	Tondela	27	4	8	15	-25	-10.3	20
18	AVS	28	1	8	19	-43	-25.2	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	13	11	2	0	+23	+20.0	35
2	Sp Lisbon	13	11	1	1	+34	+24.4	34
3	Benfica	14	9	5	0	+23	+19.3	32
4	Gil Vicente	14	8	3	3	+13	+6.2	27
5	Famalicao	14	8	2	4	+14	+8.3	26
6	Guimaraes	15	7	4	4	+6	-1.0	25
7	Sp Braga	13	7	3	3	+15	+13.1	24
8	Estoril	14	6	5	3	+8	-2.5	23
9	Moreirense	13	6	2	5	-2	-6.7	20
10	Alverca	14	5	4	5	-8	+4.8	19
11	Estrela	14	4	5	5	-1	+2.2	17
12	Santa Clara	14	5	2	7	-1	+1.3	17
13	Arouca	13	4	3	6	-7	-6.5	15
14	Rio Ave	13	3	4	6	-8	-4.0	13
15	Casa Pia	12	2	6	4	-6	-10.2	12
16	Nacional	13	3	2	8	-4	-4.8	11
17	Tondela	14	1	6	7	-8	-4.9	9
18	AVS	14	1	4	9	-14	-9.2	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	14	12	1	1	+20	+13.6	37
2	Sp Lisbon	14	10	4	0	+21	+14.1	34
3	Benfica	13	10	3	0	+18	+10.7	33
4	Sp Braga	13	6	4	3	+11	+9.0	22
5	Famalicao	13	5	4	4	-3	-0.1	19
6	Gil Vicente	14	4	6	4	+1	+3.7	18
7	Rio Ave	14	4	5	5	-10	-12.8	17
8	Moreirense	14	4	3	7	-6	-7.4	15
9	Estoril	13	4	2	7	-4	-3.4	14
10	Arouca	14	4	2	8	-14	-12.5	14
11	Casa Pia	14	3	3	8	-16	-12.5	12
12	Nacional	14	2	5	7	-6	-5.1	11
13	Santa Clara	14	2	5	7	-8	-3.1	11
14	Estrela	13	2	5	6	-11	-11.9	11
15	Tondela	13	3	2	8	-17	-5.4	11
16	Alverca	13	2	4	7	-10	-6.9	10
17	Guimaraes	13	3	1	9	-14	-3.8	10
18	AVS	14	0	4	10	-29	-15.9	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.