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Primeira Liga

Referee: Bruno Vieira

Arouca

S U T T U

1–0

Full-time

Estrela

U T T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arouca Estrela

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,5

1,8

Scored

1,0

0,5

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 29/29 matches

Win Ø 23%

24%

21%

Points per game

1,0

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 43%

52%

34%

Both score Ø 49%

59%

38%

Average goals

2,6

2,2

Scored

1,0

0,8

Conceded

1,6

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,6

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,85 xG 0,69

57% Possession 43%

19 Shots 8

6 Shots on target 4

6 Blocked shots 1

4 Goalkeeper saves 5

4 Corners 4

2 Offside 5

17 Free kicks against 16

4 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arouca 13. · Estrela 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	30	22	6	2	+53	+45.3	72
2	Benfica	29	22	3	4	+46	+42.9	69
3	Porto	30	19	5	6	+31	+23.7	62
4	Sp Braga	29	18	6	5	+24	+15.9	60
5	Guimaraes	29	12	12	5	+12	+10.5	48
6	Santa Clara	30	14	5	11	+0	+9.8	47
7	Famalicao	30	11	10	9	+6	-6.5	43
8	Casa Pia	30	11	8	11	-3	-9.3	41
9	Estoril	29	10	9	10	-8	-15.1	39
10	Moreirense	30	9	8	13	-9	-4.1	35
11	Rio Ave	30	8	9	13	-15	-17.4	33
12	Nacional	30	9	5	16	-14	-9.3	32
13	Arouca	29	7	9	13	-16	-8.2	30
14	Gil Vicente	30	7	8	15	-13	-10.3	29
15	Estrela	29	6	8	15	-20	-14.5	26
16	AVS	30	4	12	14	-26	-18.7	24
17	Farense	30	4	9	17	-21	-18.1	21
18	Boavista	30	5	6	19	-27	-16.7	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	15	13	1	1	+34	+27.1	40
2	Sp Lisbon	15	12	2	1	+24	+21.8	38
3	Porto	15	11	3	1	+23	+21.1	36
4	Sp Braga	15	9	3	3	+14	+14.9	30
5	Guimaraes	14	8	5	1	+11	+7.4	29
6	Santa Clara	15	8	2	5	+1	+10.7	26
7	Casa Pia	15	7	4	4	+4	-0.9	25
8	Famalicao	15	6	6	3	+7	+4.3	24
9	Moreirense	15	6	6	3	+1	-1.7	24
10	Nacional	15	7	2	6	-3	-2.7	23
11	Rio Ave	15	5	7	3	-1	-4.5	22
12	Estoril	14	6	4	4	-1	-5.4	22
13	Gil Vicente	15	4	4	7	-2	-1.5	16
14	Estrela	15	4	4	7	-7	-6.6	16
15	AVS	15	3	6	6	-9	-10.2	15
16	Arouca	14	3	5	6	-7	-5.0	14
17	Farense	15	2	2	11	-14	-4.1	8
18	Boavista	15	1	3	11	-17	-3.8	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	15	10	4	1	+29	+23.5	34
2	Sp Braga	14	9	3	2	+10	+1.0	30
3	Benfica	14	9	2	3	+12	+15.8	29
4	Porto	15	8	2	5	+8	+2.7	26
5	Santa Clara	15	6	3	6	-1	-0.9	21
6	Guimaraes	15	4	7	4	+1	+3.1	19
7	Famalicao	15	5	4	6	-1	-10.8	19
8	Estoril	15	4	5	6	-7	-9.7	17
9	Casa Pia	15	4	4	7	-7	-8.4	16
10	Arouca	15	4	4	7	-9	-3.2	16
11	Boavista	15	4	3	8	-10	-12.8	15
12	Farense	15	2	7	6	-7	-14.0	13
13	Gil Vicente	15	3	4	8	-11	-8.8	13
14	Moreirense	15	3	2	10	-10	-2.4	11
15	Rio Ave	15	3	2	10	-14	-12.9	11
16	Estrela	14	2	4	8	-13	-7.9	10
17	Nacional	15	2	3	10	-11	-6.6	9
18	AVS	15	1	6	8	-17	-8.5	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.