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Bundesliga

Referee: Patrick Ittrich

Freiburg

S T S S S

2–1

Full-time

Heidenheim

T T U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Freiburg Heidenheim

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

83%

17%

Points per game

2,5

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,7

3,8

Scored

2,7

1,7

Conceded

1,0

2,2

Goal diff per game

+1,7

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 29/29 matches

Win Ø 26%

38%

14%

Points per game

1,4

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 66%

62%

69%

Both score Ø 61%

59%

62%

Average goals

3,1

3,3

Scored

1,4

1,1

Conceded

1,6

2,2

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-1,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,62 xG 1,58

46% Possession 54%

17 Shots 13

4 Shots on target 2

6 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 4

1 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Freiburg 8. · Heidenheim 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	29	24	4	1	+78	+55.4	76
2	Dortmund	30	19	7	4	+30	+20.2	64
3	RB Leipzig	30	18	5	7	+22	+14.7	59
4	Stuttgart	29	17	5	7	+22	+11.1	56
5	Hoffenheim	30	16	6	8	+15	+3.1	54
6	Leverkusen	30	15	7	8	+19	+19.0	52
7	Ein Frankfurt	30	11	9	10	-2	-4.5	42
8	Freiburg	29	11	7	11	-5	+3.8	40
9	Augsburg	30	10	6	14	-16	-17.3	36
10	Mainz	29	8	9	12	-9	-6.1	33
11	Union Berlin	30	8	8	14	-18	-5.5	32
12	FC Koln	30	7	10	13	-7	-3.5	31
13	Hamburg	30	7	10	13	-15	-19.8	31
14	Werder Bremen	30	8	7	15	-18	-8.5	31
15	M'gladbach	29	7	9	13	-14	-7.0	30
16	St Pauli	30	6	8	16	-25	-21.1	26
17	Wolfsburg	30	6	6	18	-25	-17.8	24
18	Heidenheim	29	4	7	18	-32	-16.1	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	14	12	1	1	+43	+30.5	37
2	Dortmund	15	11	2	2	+19	+18.0	35
3	Stuttgart	15	11	2	2	+12	+9.1	35
4	RB Leipzig	15	10	2	3	+17	+9.6	32
5	Hoffenheim	15	9	1	5	+13	+7.7	28
6	Leverkusen	15	8	3	4	+16	+19.9	27
7	Freiburg	14	7	4	3	+7	+10.5	25
8	Ein Frankfurt	15	7	3	5	+3	+3.1	24
9	Augsburg	15	6	4	5	-5	-7.4	22
10	Hamburg	15	5	6	4	+3	-2.6	21
11	FC Koln	15	5	4	6	+3	+3.3	19
12	Werder Bremen	15	5	4	6	-8	+4.5	19
13	Union Berlin	15	4	6	5	-4	+5.0	18
14	Mainz	15	4	5	6	-1	+4.9	17
15	M'gladbach	14	4	5	5	-5	-1.6	17
16	St Pauli	15	4	5	6	-11	-6.2	17
17	Heidenheim	15	3	5	7	-14	-8.4	14
18	Wolfsburg	15	2	3	10	-10	-1.0	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	15	12	3	0	+35	+24.9	39
2	Dortmund	15	8	5	2	+11	+2.1	29
3	RB Leipzig	15	8	3	4	+5	+5.1	27
4	Hoffenheim	15	7	5	3	+2	-4.6	26
5	Leverkusen	15	7	4	4	+3	-0.9	25
6	Stuttgart	14	6	3	5	+10	+2.0	21
7	Ein Frankfurt	15	4	6	5	-5	-7.6	18
8	Mainz	14	4	4	6	-8	-11.1	16
9	Freiburg	15	4	3	8	-12	-6.6	15
10	Wolfsburg	15	4	3	8	-15	-16.8	15
11	Augsburg	15	4	2	9	-11	-9.9	14
12	Union Berlin	15	4	2	9	-14	-10.6	14
13	M'gladbach	15	3	4	8	-9	-5.3	13
14	Werder Bremen	15	3	3	9	-10	-13.0	12
15	FC Koln	15	2	6	7	-10	-6.8	12
16	Hamburg	15	2	4	9	-18	-17.1	10
17	St Pauli	15	2	3	10	-14	-15.0	9
18	Heidenheim	14	1	2	11	-18	-7.8	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.