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Primeira Liga

Referee: S Guelho

Sp Lisbon

S S U S S

3–0

Full-time

Estoril

S S U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Lisbon Estoril

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

83%

67%

Points per game

2,7

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

67%

100%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,2

4,7

Scored

2,2

3,0

Conceded

1,0

1,7

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 59%

78%

39%

Points per game

2,5

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 68%

65%

70%

Both score Ø 55%

48%

61%

Average goals

3,1

3,7

Scored

2,6

2,0

Conceded

0,5

1,7

Goal diff per game

+2,0

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

2,26 xG 0,62

53% Possession 47%

14 Shots 8

7 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 0

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

4 Corners 1

1 Offside 3

9 Free kicks against 16

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sp Lisbon 2. · Estoril 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	24	21	2	1	+39	+30.6	65
2	Sp Lisbon	23	18	4	1	+47	+34.1	58
3	Benfica	23	16	7	0	+36	+29.7	55
4	Sp Braga	23	12	6	5	+26	+21.2	42
5	Gil Vicente	23	11	7	5	+13	+8.7	40
6	Famalicao	23	10	5	8	+8	+6.0	35
7	Estoril	23	9	6	8	+7	-3.4	33
8	Moreirense	23	10	3	10	-4	-10.9	33
9	Guimaraes	23	9	4	10	-7	-4.7	31
10	Alverca	23	7	5	11	-15	-4.1	26
11	Arouca	24	7	5	12	-20	-20.4	26
12	Estrela	23	5	8	10	-15	-10.6	23
13	Casa Pia	23	5	7	11	-18	-20.2	22
14	Nacional	23	5	6	12	-7	-7.2	21
15	Rio Ave	23	4	8	11	-21	-19.7	20
16	Santa Clara	23	4	6	13	-11	+0.4	18
17	Tondela	23	4	6	13	-19	-6.8	18
18	AVS	23	1	5	17	-39	-22.7	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	12	10	2	0	+20	+18.0	32
2	Sp Lisbon	11	9	1	1	+29	+20.8	28
3	Benfica	12	8	4	0	+20	+18.9	28
4	Sp Braga	11	7	2	2	+16	+13.7	23
5	Gil Vicente	11	7	2	2	+11	+6.2	23
6	Estoril	12	6	4	2	+9	-1.2	22
7	Guimaraes	12	6	3	3	+2	-1.6	21
8	Famalicao	12	6	2	4	+12	+6.9	20
9	Moreirense	11	6	1	4	-1	-5.1	19
10	Alverca	12	5	3	4	-5	+4.7	18
11	Arouca	12	4	3	5	-6	-6.9	15
12	Estrela	12	3	4	5	-5	-0.1	13
13	Nacional	11	3	2	6	-2	-3.0	11
14	Santa Clara	12	3	2	7	-4	+2.3	11
15	Casa Pia	11	2	5	4	-6	-9.9	11
16	Rio Ave	11	2	3	6	-9	-5.6	9
17	Tondela	11	1	4	6	-7	-3.9	7
18	AVS	12	1	3	8	-13	-8.6	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	12	11	0	1	+19	+12.6	33
2	Sp Lisbon	12	9	3	0	+18	+13.3	30
3	Benfica	11	8	3	0	+16	+10.8	27
4	Sp Braga	12	5	4	3	+10	+7.5	19
5	Gil Vicente	12	4	5	3	+2	+2.5	17
6	Famalicao	11	4	3	4	-4	-0.9	15
7	Moreirense	12	4	2	6	-3	-5.8	14
8	Estoril	11	3	2	6	-2	-2.1	11
9	Rio Ave	12	2	5	5	-12	-14.1	11
10	Tondela	12	3	2	7	-12	-2.9	11
11	Casa Pia	12	3	2	7	-12	-10.3	11
12	Arouca	12	3	2	7	-14	-13.5	11
13	Nacional	12	2	4	6	-5	-4.2	10
14	Guimaraes	11	3	1	7	-9	-3.0	10
15	Estrela	11	2	4	5	-10	-10.4	10
16	Alverca	11	2	2	7	-10	-8.9	8
17	Santa Clara	11	1	4	6	-7	-1.9	7
18	AVS	11	0	2	9	-26	-14.0	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.