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Primeira Liga

Referee: L Filipe

Arouca

S T S S T

3–0

Full-time

Nacional

T S T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arouca Nacional

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,5

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,5

2,8

Scored

1,8

1,5

Conceded

1,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 22/22 matches

Win Ø 25%

27%

23%

Points per game

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

68%

50%

Both score Ø 57%

55%

59%

Average goals

3,5

2,6

Scored

1,3

1,2

Conceded

2,2

1,4

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,92 xG 0,99

61% Possession 39%

10 Shots 15

7 Shots on target 5

1 Blocked shots 5

5 Goalkeeper saves 4

4 Corners 1

6 Offside 0

13 Free kicks against 13

5 Yellow cards 3

1 Red cards 1

The table before the match Arouca 12. · Nacional 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	22	19	2	1	+36	+25.9	59
2	Sp Lisbon	22	17	4	1	+44	+33.0	55
3	Benfica	22	15	7	0	+33	+26.3	52
4	Gil Vicente	22	11	7	4	+15	+8.5	40
5	Sp Braga	22	11	6	5	+25	+20.0	39
6	Moreirense	22	10	3	9	-1	-9.9	33
7	Famalicao	22	9	5	8	+6	+4.8	32
8	Guimaraes	22	9	4	9	-6	-3.5	31
9	Estoril	22	8	6	8	+5	-3.1	30
10	Alverca	22	7	4	11	-15	-4.7	25
11	Estrela	23	5	8	10	-15	-10.6	23
12	Arouca	22	6	5	11	-21	-18.4	23
13	Casa Pia	22	5	7	10	-16	-19.0	22
14	Nacional	22	5	6	11	-4	-6.3	21
15	Rio Ave	22	4	8	10	-20	-18.0	20
16	Tondela	23	4	6	13	-19	-6.8	18
17	Santa Clara	22	4	5	13	-11	+1.0	17
18	AVS	22	1	5	16	-36	-19.3	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	11	9	1	1	+29	+20.8	28
2	Porto	10	8	2	0	+17	+13.3	26
3	Benfica	11	7	4	0	+17	+15.6	25
4	Gil Vicente	11	7	2	2	+11	+6.2	23
5	Guimaraes	12	6	3	3	+2	-1.6	21
6	Sp Braga	10	6	2	2	+15	+12.5	20
7	Estoril	11	5	4	2	+7	-1.0	19
8	Moreirense	10	6	1	3	+2	-4.1	19
9	Famalicao	11	5	2	4	+10	+5.8	17
10	Alverca	11	5	2	4	-5	+4.1	17
11	Estrela	12	3	4	5	-5	-0.1	13
12	Arouca	11	3	3	5	-9	-7.9	12
13	Nacional	11	3	2	6	-2	-3.0	11
14	Santa Clara	12	3	2	7	-4	+2.3	11
15	Casa Pia	11	2	5	4	-6	-9.9	11
16	Rio Ave	11	2	3	6	-9	-5.6	9
17	Tondela	11	1	4	6	-7	-3.9	7
18	AVS	12	1	3	8	-13	-8.6	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	12	11	0	1	+19	+12.6	33
2	Benfica	11	8	3	0	+16	+10.8	27
3	Sp Lisbon	11	8	3	0	+15	+12.3	27
4	Sp Braga	12	5	4	3	+10	+7.5	19
5	Gil Vicente	11	4	5	2	+4	+2.3	17
6	Famalicao	11	4	3	4	-4	-0.9	15
7	Moreirense	12	4	2	6	-3	-5.8	14
8	Estoril	11	3	2	6	-2	-2.1	11
9	Casa Pia	11	3	2	6	-10	-9.1	11
10	Rio Ave	11	2	5	4	-11	-12.4	11
11	Arouca	11	3	2	6	-12	-10.6	11
12	Tondela	12	3	2	7	-12	-2.9	11
13	Nacional	11	2	4	5	-2	-3.3	10
14	Guimaraes	10	3	1	6	-8	-1.8	10
15	Estrela	11	2	4	5	-10	-10.4	10
16	Alverca	11	2	2	7	-10	-8.9	8
17	Santa Clara	10	1	3	6	-7	-1.3	6
18	AVS	10	0	2	8	-23	-10.7	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.