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Primeira Liga

Referee: João Ferreira

Estoril

U S T T T

1–2

Full-time

Arouca

S S T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Estoril Arouca

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 83%

83%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

4,0

3,2

Scored

1,8

1,7

Conceded

2,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 17/17 matches

Win Ø 27%

29%

24%

Points per game

1,0

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 62%

71%

53%

Both score Ø 53%

59%

47%

Average goals

3,7

2,8

Scored

1,8

1,4

Conceded

1,9

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

2,08 xG 1,40

55% Possession 45%

13 Shots 15

4 Shots on target 7

4 Blocked shots 5

5 Goalkeeper saves 2

7 Corners 4

1 Offside 4

16 Free kicks against 13

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Estoril 13. · Arouca 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	18	15	1	2	+26	+21.1	46
2	Benfica	18	14	3	1	+26	+22.4	45
3	Porto	17	12	2	3	+13	+10.7	38
4	Sp Braga	18	11	3	4	+16	+10.9	36
5	Guimaraes	17	10	3	4	+9	+2.7	33
6	Moreirense	17	8	5	4	+6	+0.9	29
7	Famalicao	18	5	7	6	-4	-4.7	22
8	Farense	17	6	3	8	+0	-6.6	21
9	Boavista	18	5	5	8	-7	-11.2	20
10	Casa Pia	17	5	4	8	-5	-3.9	19
11	Estrela	17	4	6	7	-6	-3.7	18
12	Portimonense	17	5	3	9	-18	-9.2	18
13	Estoril	17	5	2	10	-1	-9.7	17
14	Arouca	17	4	4	9	-2	-1.5	16
15	Gil Vicente	17	4	4	9	-4	-7.5	16
16	Rio Ave	17	3	6	8	-9	+3.4	15
17	Vizela	18	2	7	9	-14	-4.4	13
18	Chaves	17	3	2	12	-26	-9.7	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	9	9	0	0	+17	+12.5	27
2	Benfica	9	7	2	0	+16	+14.4	23
3	Guimaraes	9	7	0	2	+10	+6.7	21
4	Porto	8	6	1	1	+7	+10.5	19
5	Gil Vicente	9	4	4	1	+9	-2.6	16
6	Sp Braga	8	4	2	2	+9	+11.6	14
7	Farense	9	4	2	3	+5	+0.3	14
8	Estoril	8	4	1	3	+10	+0.6	13
9	Rio Ave	9	3	3	3	+0	+4.3	12
10	Famalicao	9	3	3	3	-2	-1.1	12
11	Moreirense	8	3	2	3	+0	+0.3	11
12	Portimonense	8	3	2	3	-3	-3.1	11
13	Boavista	9	2	4	3	-4	-3.9	10
14	Estrela	9	3	1	5	-4	-2.4	10
15	Arouca	9	2	2	5	-4	-1.9	8
16	Chaves	8	2	1	5	-7	-2.1	7
17	Vizela	10	1	3	6	-11	-0.9	6
18	Casa Pia	8	1	2	5	-6	-2.4	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	9	7	1	1	+10	+8.0	22
2	Sp Braga	10	7	1	2	+7	-0.7	22
3	Sp Lisbon	9	6	1	2	+9	+8.6	19
4	Porto	9	6	1	2	+6	+0.2	19
5	Moreirense	9	5	3	1	+6	+0.5	18
6	Casa Pia	9	4	2	3	+1	-1.6	14
7	Guimaraes	8	3	3	2	-1	-4.0	12
8	Famalicao	9	2	4	3	-2	-3.6	10
9	Boavista	9	3	1	5	-3	-7.3	10
10	Arouca	8	2	2	4	+2	+0.5	8
11	Estrela	8	1	5	2	-2	-1.3	8
12	Vizela	8	1	4	3	-3	-3.5	7
13	Farense	8	2	1	5	-5	-6.9	7
14	Portimonense	9	2	1	6	-15	-6.1	7
15	Estoril	9	1	1	7	-11	-10.4	4
16	Chaves	9	1	1	7	-19	-7.6	4
17	Rio Ave	8	0	3	5	-9	-0.9	3
18	Gil Vicente	8	0	0	8	-13	-4.8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.