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Primeira Liga

Referee: A Narciso

Estoril

T S T U S

1–2

Full-time

Rio Ave

T T U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Estoril Rio Ave

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,5

1,8

Scored

1,0

0,7

Conceded

1,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 26/26 matches

Win Ø 31%

38%

23%

Points per game

1,4

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 64%

65%

62%

Both score Ø 52%

54%

50%

Average goals

3,4

2,7

Scored

1,8

1,0

Conceded

1,6

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,15 xG 1,65

55% Possession 45%

13 Shots 13

4 Shots on target 8

3 Blocked shots 3

5 Goalkeeper saves 3

11 Corners 7

1 Offside 3

16 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Estoril 7. · Rio Ave 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	26	22	3	1	+42	+33.4	69
2	Benfica	27	19	8	0	+41	+30.1	65
3	Sp Lisbon	25	19	5	1	+50	+36.1	62
4	Sp Braga	25	13	7	5	+27	+22.3	46
5	Famalicao	27	13	6	8	+11	+8.2	45
6	Gil Vicente	27	11	9	7	+11	+8.4	42
7	Estoril	26	10	7	9	+5	-5.5	37
8	Moreirense	27	10	5	12	-8	-14.1	35
9	Guimaraes	27	9	5	13	-13	-7.3	32
10	Alverca	26	7	8	11	-15	-1.6	29
11	Arouca	27	8	5	14	-21	-19.0	29
12	Santa Clara	27	7	7	13	-7	+0.2	28
13	Estrela	27	6	10	11	-12	-9.7	28
14	Rio Ave	26	6	9	11	-19	-17.4	27
15	Casa Pia	26	5	9	12	-22	-22.8	24
16	Nacional	27	5	7	15	-10	-9.9	22
17	Tondela	26	4	8	14	-20	-7.8	20
18	AVS	27	1	8	18	-40	-23.7	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	13	11	2	0	+23	+20.0	35
2	Benfica	14	9	5	0	+23	+19.3	32
3	Sp Lisbon	12	10	1	1	+32	+22.4	31
4	Famalicao	14	8	2	4	+14	+8.3	26
5	Sp Braga	12	7	3	2	+16	+13.3	24
6	Gil Vicente	13	7	3	3	+10	+4.7	24
7	Estoril	13	6	5	2	+9	-2.0	23
8	Guimaraes	14	6	4	4	+1	-3.5	22
9	Moreirense	13	6	2	5	-2	-6.7	20
10	Alverca	13	5	4	4	-5	+5.3	19
11	Estrela	14	4	5	5	-1	+2.2	17
12	Santa Clara	14	5	2	7	-1	+1.3	17
13	Arouca	13	4	3	6	-7	-6.5	15
14	Rio Ave	13	3	4	6	-8	-4.0	13
15	Casa Pia	12	2	6	4	-6	-10.2	12
16	Nacional	13	3	2	8	-4	-4.8	11
17	Tondela	14	1	6	7	-8	-4.9	9
18	AVS	14	1	4	9	-14	-9.2	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	13	11	1	1	+19	+13.4	34
2	Benfica	13	10	3	0	+18	+10.7	33
3	Sp Lisbon	13	9	4	0	+18	+13.6	31
4	Sp Braga	13	6	4	3	+11	+9.0	22
5	Famalicao	13	5	4	4	-3	-0.1	19
6	Gil Vicente	14	4	6	4	+1	+3.7	18
7	Moreirense	14	4	3	7	-6	-7.4	15
8	Estoril	13	4	2	7	-4	-3.4	14
9	Rio Ave	13	3	5	5	-11	-13.3	14
10	Arouca	14	4	2	8	-14	-12.5	14
11	Casa Pia	14	3	3	8	-16	-12.5	12
12	Nacional	14	2	5	7	-6	-5.1	11
13	Santa Clara	13	2	5	6	-6	-1.1	11
14	Estrela	13	2	5	6	-11	-11.9	11
15	Tondela	12	3	2	7	-12	-2.9	11
16	Alverca	13	2	4	7	-10	-6.9	10
17	Guimaraes	13	3	1	9	-14	-3.8	10
18	AVS	13	0	4	9	-26	-14.4	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.