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Primeira Liga

Referee: M Nogueira

Alverca

U S S U T

0–3

Full-time

Sp Braga

U S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Alverca Sp Braga

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,8

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

4,7

1,8

Scored

3,7

1,5

Conceded

1,0

0,3

Goal diff per game

+2,7

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 50%

100%

Points per game

0,0

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 100%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

100%

Average goals

3,0

Scored

1,0

3,0

Conceded

2,0

0,0

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+3,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–3

2,18 xG 1,24

33% Possession 67%

12 Shots 12

3 Shots on target 6

3 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

1 Corners 5

2 Offside 0

15 Free kicks against 6

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Alverca 15. · Sp Braga 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Famalicao	2	2	0	0	+4	+0.6	6
2	Porto	1	1	0	0	+3	+2.1	3
3	Sp Braga	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.2	3
4	Arouca	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.0	3
5	Gil Vicente	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.2	3
6	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.4	3
7	Moreirense	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.0	3
8	Benfica	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.0	3
9	Casa Pia	2	1	0	1	+0	-2.2	3
10	Guimaraes	2	1	0	1	-2	-1.2	3
11	Rio Ave	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
12	Estoril	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.6	1
13	Estrela	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.3	1
14	Nacional	2	0	1	1	-2	-0.4	1
15	Alverca	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.0	0
16	Santa Clara	1	0	0	1	-3	-0.7	0
17	AVS	2	0	0	2	-4	-0.2	0
18	Tondela	2	0	0	2	-4	-1.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Famalicao	1	1	0	0	+3	+0.7	3
2	Porto	1	1	0	0	+3	+2.1	3
3	Sp Braga	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.2	3
4	Arouca	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.0	3
5	Guimaraes	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.9	3
6	Moreirense	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.0	3
7	Rio Ave	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
8	Estoril	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.7	1
9	Tondela	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.0	0
10	Estrela	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.0	0
11	Nacional	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.2	0
12	Casa Pia	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.4	0
13	AVS	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Gil Vicente	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.2	3
2	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.4	3
3	Casa Pia	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.3	3
4	Famalicao	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.0	3
5	Benfica	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.0	3
6	Nacional	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
7	Estrela	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.7	1
8	Estoril	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.9	0
9	Alverca	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.0	0
10	AVS	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.0	0
11	Santa Clara	1	0	0	1	-3	-0.7	0
12	Guimaraes	1	0	0	1	-3	-2.1	0
13	Tondela	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.