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Europa League
Referee: F Letexier
Roma
U T S U S
3–2
Full-time
Porto
S U U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Roma Porto
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
50%
33%
Points per game
1,8
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 17%
17%
17%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
2,0
2,0
Scored
1,2
1,2
Conceded
0,8
0,8
Goal diff per game
+0,3
+0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Europa League · 9/9 matches
Win Ø 33%
33%
33%
Points per game
1,4
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 33%
22%
44%
Both score Ø 50%
44%
56%
Average goals
2,0
2,9
Scored
1,2
1,6
Conceded
0,8
1,3
Goal diff per game
+0,4
+0,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

2,68 xG 0,56
56% Possession 44%
19 Shots 5
6 Shots on target 1
3 Blocked shots 2
0 Goalkeeper saves 1
5 Corners 2
3 Offside 2
12 Free kicks against 9
2 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 1

Recent head-to-head meetings

13. Feb -25 Porto – Roma 1–1

Match report

Roma Porto
26′
🟨 Otávio
27′
⚽ Samu Aghehowa 0–1
Fábio Vieira
Paulo Dybala 🟨
29′
34′
🟨 Nehuén Pérez
1–1 P. Dybala ⚽
E. Shomurodov
35′
2–1 P. Dybala ⚽
M. Koné
39′
Half-time 2–1
Leandro Paredes 🟨
51′
51′
🟥 Stephen Eustaquio
51′
ℹ️ Stephen Eustaquio
VAR: Card upgrade
56′
🔁 Gonçalo Borges
↦ Pepê
65′
🔁 Rodrigo Mora
↦ Otávio
N. Pisilli 🔁
↦ L. Pellegrini
78′
M. Soulé 🔁
↦ E. Shomurodov
78′
81′
🔁 William
↦ Fábio Vieira
82′
🔁 D. Namaso
↦ Francisco Moura
82′
🔁 T. Pérez
↦ A. Varela
3–1 N. Pisilli ⚽
Angeliño
83′
86′
🟨 Tomás Pérez
T. Baldanzi 🔁
↦ P. Dybala
87′
D. Rensch 🔁
↦ S. El Shaarawy
87′
93′
🟨 William Gomes
Saud Abdulhamid 🔁
↦ Z. Çelik
93′
96′
⚽ D. Rensch 4–1
own goal
Full-time 4–1

Line-ups

Roma

3-4-2-1
99 M. Svilar G
19 Z. Çelik D
23 G. Mancini D
5 E. Ndicka D
92 S. El Shaarawy M
17 M. Koné M
16 L. Paredes M
3 Angeliño M
21 P. Dybala F
7 L. Pellegrini F
14 E. Shomurodov F
Bench (10)
61 N. Pisilli
18 M. Soulé
35 T. Baldanzi
2 D. Rensch
12 Saud Abdulhamid
66 Buba Sangaré
15 M. Hummels
70 G. De Marzi
95 P. Gollini
25 V. Nelsson

Coach: C. Ranieri

Porto

3-4-3
99 Diogo Costa G
3 Tiago Djaló D
24 N. Pérez D
4 Otávio D
23 João Mário M
22 A. Varela M
6 S. Eustaquio M
74 Francisco Moura M
10 Fábio Vieira F
9 Samu Aghehowa F
11 Pepê F
Bench (12)
70 Gonçalo Borges
86 Rodrigo Mora
7 William
19 D. Namaso
25 T. Pérez
27 D. Gül
20 André Franco
97 Zé Pedro
5 Iván Marcano
94 Samuel Portugal
12 Z. Sanusi
14 Cláudio Ramos

Coach: M. Anselmi

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

F Letexier · 176 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,0 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
23,3 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,25 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.