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Europa League
Referee: T Stieler
Porto
T U S U U
1–1
Full-time
Roma
S S U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Porto Roma
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
17%
50%
Points per game
1,0
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 33%
33%
33%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
2,3
2,2
Scored
1,0
1,2
Conceded
1,3
1,0
Goal diff per game
-0,3
+0,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Europa League · 8/8 matches
Win Ø 38%
38%
38%
Points per game
1,4
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 38%
50%
25%
Both score Ø 44%
50%
38%
Average goals
3,0
2,0
Scored
1,6
1,3
Conceded
1,4
0,8
Goal diff per game
+0,3
+0,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,75 xG 1,25
57% Possession 43%
12 Shots 15
2 Shots on target 4
3 Blocked shots 4
3 Goalkeeper saves 1
4 Corners 6
2 Offside 4
8 Free kicks against 16
3 Yellow cards 8
0 Red cards 1

Match report

Porto Roma
17′
🟨 Lorenzo Pellegrini
Alan Varela 🟨
20′
28′
🟨 Zeki Çelik
34′
🟨 Manu Koné
39′
🔁 T. Baldanzi
↦ P. Dybala
Half-time 0–0
46′
🔁 S. El Shaarawy
↦ A. Saelemaekers
46′
🔁 N. Pisilli
↦ M. Koné
Francisco Moura 🟨
47′
47′
🟨 Alexis Saelemaekers
50′
⚽ Z. Çelik 0–1
A. Dovbyk
63′
🟨 Bryan Cristante
Pepê 🔁
↦ Rodrigo Mora
63′
Fábio Vieira 🔁
↦ A. Varela
63′
1–1 Francisco Moura ⚽
67′
68′
🔁 M. Soulé
↦ L. Pellegrini
Otávio 🟨
71′
72′
🟨 Bryan Cristante
72′
🟥 Bryan Cristante
D. Namaso 🔁
↦ Otávio
75′
75′
🔁 L. Paredes
↦ A. Dovbyk
Z. Sanusi 🔁
↦ Francisco Moura
85′
D. Gül 🔁
↦ Samu Aghehowa
85′
94′
🟨 Tommaso Baldanzi
94′
🟨 Leandro Paredes
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Porto

3-4-2-1
99 Diogo Costa G
3 Tiago Djaló D
24 N. Pérez D
4 Otávio D
23 João Mário M
6 S. Eustaquio M
22 A. Varela M
74 Francisco Moura M
70 Gonçalo Borges F
86 Rodrigo Mora F
9 Samu Aghehowa F
Bench (12)
11 Pepê
10 Fábio Vieira
19 D. Namaso
12 Z. Sanusi
27 D. Gül
25 T. Pérez
20 André Franco
15 Vasco Sousa
14 Cláudio Ramos
97 Zé Pedro
7 William
5 Iván Marcano

Coach: M. Anselmi

Roma

3-5-2
99 M. Svilar G
19 Z. Çelik D
23 G. Mancini D
5 E. Ndicka D
56 A. Saelemaekers M
17 M. Koné M
4 B. Cristante M
7 L. Pellegrini M
3 Angeliño M
21 P. Dybala F
11 A. Dovbyk F
Bench (12)
35 T. Baldanzi
92 S. El Shaarawy
61 N. Pisilli
18 M. Soulé
16 L. Paredes
25 V. Nelsson
14 E. Shomurodov
12 Saud Abdulhamid
95 P. Gollini
66 Buba Sangaré
15 M. Hummels
70 G. De Marzi

Coach: C. Ranieri

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

T Stieler · 148 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,7 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
22,8 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,18 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.