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Primeira Liga

Referee: João Pedro Pinheiro

Arouca

S S U S T

0–1

Full-time

Porto

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arouca Porto

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

50%

100%

Points per game

1,8

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

1,3

2,8

Scored

0,8

2,0

Conceded

0,5

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+1,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 30/30 matches

Win Ø 60%

43%

77%

Points per game

1,6

2,4

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

30%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

37%

47%

Average goals

2,2

2,7

Scored

1,1

2,1

Conceded

1,1

0,6

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+1,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

42% Possession 58%

8 Shots 12

2 Shots on target 4

1 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 1

1 Corners 8

2 Offside 2

17 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arouca 5. · Porto 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	31	26	2	3	+55	80
2	Porto	30	23	4	3	+44	73
3	Sp Braga	31	23	2	6	+40	71
4	Sp Lisbon	31	21	4	6	+37	67
5	Arouca	30	13	9	8	-1	48
6	Guimaraes	31	14	5	12	-4	47
7	Chaves	31	11	10	10	-3	43
8	Famalicao	31	13	3	15	-6	42
9	Casa Pia	31	11	7	13	-7	40
10	Boavista	31	11	7	13	-12	40
11	Vizela	31	11	6	14	-2	39
12	Rio Ave	31	10	9	12	-4	39
13	Portimonense	31	10	4	17	-16	34
14	Gil Vicente	31	8	7	16	-11	31
15	Estoril	31	8	4	19	-20	28
16	Maritimo	31	6	5	20	-29	23
17	Pacos Ferreira	31	5	5	21	-33	20
18	Santa Clara	31	4	7	20	-28	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	16	14	1	1	+33	43
2	Porto	15	13	0	2	+29	39
3	Sp Lisbon	15	12	1	2	+29	37
4	Sp Braga	15	11	2	2	+24	35
5	Guimaraes	16	9	3	4	+5	30
6	Arouca	15	9	2	4	+5	29
7	Boavista	16	8	5	3	+2	29
8	Famalicao	16	9	1	6	+4	28
9	Rio Ave	15	8	2	5	+5	26
10	Casa Pia	16	6	4	6	+1	22
11	Portimonense	15	6	3	6	-1	21
12	Chaves	15	5	5	5	+0	20
13	Vizela	15	5	3	7	+0	18
14	Gil Vicente	15	4	6	5	-2	18
15	Maritimo	16	5	3	8	-3	18
16	Estoril	15	5	2	8	-8	17
17	Santa Clara	16	3	5	8	-12	14
18	Pacos Ferreira	16	2	2	12	-22	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	15	12	1	2	+22	37
2	Sp Braga	16	12	0	4	+16	36
3	Porto	15	10	4	1	+15	34
4	Sp Lisbon	16	9	3	4	+8	30
5	Chaves	16	6	5	5	-3	23
6	Vizela	16	6	3	7	-2	21
7	Arouca	15	4	7	4	-6	19
8	Casa Pia	15	5	3	7	-8	18
9	Guimaraes	15	5	2	8	-9	17
10	Famalicao	15	4	2	9	-10	14
11	Gil Vicente	16	4	1	11	-9	13
12	Rio Ave	16	2	7	7	-9	13
13	Portimonense	16	4	1	11	-15	13
14	Pacos Ferreira	15	3	3	9	-11	12
15	Estoril	16	3	2	11	-12	11
16	Boavista	15	3	2	10	-14	11
17	Santa Clara	15	1	2	12	-16	5
18	Maritimo	15	1	2	12	-26	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.