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Primeira Liga

Referee: Miguel Fonseca

Estrela

T T T U T

2–1

Full-time

Moreirense

S T U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Estrela Moreirense

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,3

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

2,0

2,8

Scored

0,5

1,3

Conceded

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,3

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

2,0

2,8

Scored

0,5

1,3

Conceded

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

0,60 xG 1,30

37% Possession 63%

4 Shots 13

2 Shots on target 2

1 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 0

2 Corners 7

3 Offside 3

27 Free kicks against 18

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Estrela 17. · Moreirense 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	7	7	0	0	+23	+16.8	21
2	Porto	6	5	0	1	+9	+9.1	15
3	Benfica	6	4	1	1	+8	+7.1	13
4	Santa Clara	6	4	0	2	+2	+3.2	12
5	Guimaraes	6	4	0	2	+1	+3.4	12
6	Famalicao	6	3	2	1	+5	+1.3	11
7	Sp Braga	6	3	2	1	+4	+0.2	11
8	Moreirense	6	2	2	2	-1	+1.9	8
9	Gil Vicente	6	1	4	1	-1	-1.7	7
10	Casa Pia	6	2	1	3	-3	-1.7	7
11	Rio Ave	6	2	1	3	-3	-4.4	7
12	AVS	6	2	1	3	-4	-4.3	7
13	Arouca	6	2	0	4	-5	-6.2	6
14	Estoril	7	1	3	3	-6	-9.3	6
15	Boavista	6	1	2	3	-4	-0.0	5
16	Nacional	6	1	1	4	-8	-0.7	4
17	Estrela	6	0	2	4	-6	-5.7	2
18	Farense	6	0	0	6	-11	-9.1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	3	3	0	0	+7	+5.0	9
2	Sp Lisbon	3	3	0	0	+7	+6.5	9
3	Porto	3	3	0	0	+6	+9.8	9
4	Famalicao	3	2	1	0	+3	+1.8	7
5	Rio Ave	3	2	1	0	+2	+1.2	7
6	AVS	3	2	1	0	+2	-0.7	7
7	Santa Clara	3	2	0	1	+0	+2.2	6
8	Guimaraes	3	2	0	1	-1	+1.4	6
9	Gil Vicente	3	1	2	0	+2	+1.6	5
10	Moreirense	3	1	2	0	+2	+0.7	5
11	Sp Braga	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.2	4
12	Estoril	4	1	1	2	-5	-6.6	4
13	Casa Pia	3	1	0	2	-1	-0.1	3
14	Arouca	3	1	0	2	-3	-3.6	3
15	Nacional	3	1	0	2	-6	-1.7	3
16	Estrela	3	0	1	2	-4	-2.2	1
17	Boavista	3	0	1	2	-4	-0.7	1
18	Farense	3	0	0	3	-7	-3.9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	4	4	0	0	+16	+10.3	12
2	Sp Braga	3	2	1	0	+4	+0.5	7
3	Porto	3	2	0	1	+3	-0.8	6
4	Santa Clara	3	2	0	1	+2	+1.0	6
5	Guimaraes	3	2	0	1	+2	+2.0	6
6	Famalicao	3	1	1	1	+2	-0.4	4
7	Benfica	3	1	1	1	+1	+2.1	4
8	Boavista	3	1	1	1	+0	+0.7	4
9	Casa Pia	3	1	1	1	-2	-1.7	4
10	Arouca	3	1	0	2	-2	-2.6	3
11	Moreirense	3	1	0	2	-3	+1.2	3
12	Estoril	3	0	2	1	-1	-2.7	2
13	Gil Vicente	3	0	2	1	-3	-3.2	2
14	Estrela	3	0	1	2	-2	-3.5	1
15	Nacional	3	0	1	2	-2	+1.0	1
16	Farense	3	0	0	3	-4	-5.2	0
17	Rio Ave	3	0	0	3	-5	-5.6	0
18	AVS	3	0	0	3	-6	-3.6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.