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Taça de Portugal

Referee: David Silva

Moreirense

T S T S S

3–0

Full-time

Vilafranquense

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Moreirense Vilafranquense

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/1 matches

Win Ø 75%

50%

100%

Points per game

1,5

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

50%

100%

Both score Ø 75%

50%

100%

Average goals

2,7

5,0

Scored

1,5

3,0

Conceded

1,2

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+1,0

This season — Taça de Portugal · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 100%

100%

Points per game

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 100%

100%

Both score Ø 100%

100%

Average goals

4,0

5,0

Scored

3,0

Conceded

1,0

2,0

Goal diff per game

+2,0

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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The table before the match Moreirense 36. · Vilafranquense 44. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	FC Serpa	2	2	0	0	+11	6
2	São João Ver	2	2	0	0	+9	6
3	Beira-Mar	2	2	0	0	+9	6
4	Dumiense	2	2	0	0	+8	6
5	Pêro Pinheiro	2	2	0	0	+7	6
6	Fontinhas	2	2	0	0	+7	6
7	Vianense	2	2	0	0	+6	6
8	Montalegre	2	2	0	0	+6	6
9	Valadares Gaia	2	2	0	0	+5	6
10	Sanjoanense	2	2	0	0	+5	6
11	Belenenses	2	2	0	0	+5	6
12	Felgueiras 1932	2	2	0	0	+4	6
13	Sertanense	2	2	0	0	+4	6
14	Canelas 2010	2	2	0	0	+4	6
15	Vilaverdense	2	2	0	0	+3	6
16	Olhanense	3	2	0	1	+2	6
17	Bragança	2	2	0	0	+2	6
18	Tirsense	2	2	0	0	+2	6
19	Varzim	2	2	0	0	+2	6
20	Alverca	2	1	1	0	+2	4
21	Pombal	2	1	1	0	+2	4
22	Oriental Lisboa	2	1	1	0	+1	4
23	Paredes	2	1	1	0	+1	4
24	Oliveira Hospital	2	1	1	0	+1	4
25	Camacha	2	1	1	0	+1	4
26	Benfica Castelo Branco	2	1	0	1	+7	3
27	Leixoes	1	1	0	0	+5	3
28	Fafe	2	1	0	1	+4	3
29	Academico Viseu	1	1	0	0	+4	3
30	Vitoria Setubal	1	1	0	0	+4	3
31	Oliveirense	1	1	0	0	+4	3
32	Merelinense	2	1	0	1	+3	3
33	Caldas	1	1	0	0	+3	3
34	Juventude Évora	2	1	0	1	+2	3
35	Courense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
36	Moreirense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
37	CF Os Belenenses	1	1	0	0	+2	3
38	Amora	1	1	0	0	+2	3
39	Trofense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
40	Nacional	1	1	0	0	+2	3
41	Rabo Peixe	1	1	0	0	+1	3
42	Ferreiras	2	1	0	1	+1	3
43	Penafiel	1	1	0	0	+1	3
44	Vilafranquense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
45	Real	1	1	0	0	+1	3
46	Anadia	1	1	0	0	+1	3
47	Farense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
48	Pevidem	1	1	0	0	+1	3
49	Mafra	1	1	0	0	+1	3
50	Imortal Albufeira	1	1	0	0	+1	3
51	UD da Serra	2	1	0	1	+0	3
52	Os Marialvas	2	1	0	1	+0	3
53	Gondomar	2	1	0	1	+0	3
54	Resende	2	1	0	1	+0	3
55	Sintrense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
56	Arronches e Benfica	2	1	0	1	+0	3
57	União de Leiria	2	1	0	1	+0	3
58	União Santarém	2	1	0	1	+0	3
59	Lajense	2	1	0	1	-1	3
60	Lagos	2	1	0	1	-1	3
61	Oriental Dragon	2	1	0	1	-1	3
62	Joane	2	1	0	1	-2	3
63	Praiense	2	1	0	1	-4	3
64	AR São Martinho	1	0	1	0	+0	1
65	Guarda Desportiva	1	0	1	0	+0	1
66	União de Tomar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
67	Estrela	1	0	1	0	+0	1
68	Machico	1	0	1	0	+0	1
69	Academica	1	0	1	0	+0	1
70	Tondela	1	0	1	0	+0	1
71	Recreativa de Lamelas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
72	Lusitânia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
73	Freamunde	1	0	0	1	-1	0
74	São Roque (Açores)	1	0	0	1	-1	0
75	Monção	1	0	0	1	-1	0
76	Leça	1	0	0	1	-1	0
77	1º Dezembro	1	0	0	1	-1	0
78	Vila Meã	1	0	0	1	-1	0
79	Atlético CP	1	0	0	1	-1	0
80	SC Paivense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
81	Rebordosa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
82	Alcains	1	0	0	1	-1	0
83	Madalena	1	0	0	1	-1	0
84	Fazendense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
85	Amarante	1	0	0	1	-1	0
86	Marinhense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
87	Gavionenses	1	0	0	1	-1	0
88	Santa Eulália	1	0	0	1	-1	0
89	Alpendorada	1	0	0	1	-1	0
90	Lusitânia Lourosa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
91	Feirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
92	Águeda	1	0	0	1	-1	0
93	Monte Trigo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
94	Olímpico do Montijo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
95	Vasco Gama VF do Campo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
96	Silves	1	0	0	1	-2	0
97	Atlético Arcos	1	0	0	1	-2	0
98	Vila Cortez	1	0	0	1	-2	0
99	Torreense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
100	Vila Caíz	1	0	0	1	-2	0
101	UD Rio Maior	1	0	0	1	-2	0
102	Comércio Indústria	1	0	0	1	-2	0
103	Régua	1	0	0	1	-2	0
104	Lusitano Évora 1911	1	0	0	1	-2	0
105	Mosteirense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
106	Culatrense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
107	CD Olivais e Moscavide	1	0	0	1	-2	0
108	Coruchense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
109	GR Vigor Mocidade	1	0	0	1	-2	0
110	Angrense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
111	Salgueiros	1	0	0	1	-3	0
112	Atlético Reguengos	1	0	0	1	-3	0
113	Mondinense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
114	Brito	1	0	0	1	-3	0
115	Moncarapachense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
116	Lusitano FCV	1	0	0	1	-3	0
117	Castrense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
118	Loures	1	0	0	1	-3	0
119	Castro Daire	1	0	0	1	-3	0
120	SC Covilha	1	0	0	1	-3	0
121	Fabril Barreiro	1	0	0	1	-4	0
122	Pedrógão São Pedro	1	0	0	1	-4	0
123	Maria da Fonte	1	0	0	1	-4	0
124	Vinhais	1	0	0	1	-4	0
125	Vilar de Perdizes	1	0	0	1	-4	0
126	Ribeira Brava	1	0	0	1	-5	0
127	Rebordelo	1	0	0	1	-5	0
128	Vasco da Gama Vidigueira	1	0	0	1	-5	0
129	Moura	1	0	0	1	-5	0
130	AD Portomosense	1	0	0	1	-6	0
131	Mortágua	1	0	0	1	-6	0
132	Sporting Mêda	1	0	0	1	-6	0
133	Águias do Moradal	1	0	0	1	-8	0
134	1º Maio Funchal	1	0	0	1	-8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	São João Ver	2	2	0	0	+9	6
2	Pêro Pinheiro	2	2	0	0	+7	6
3	Valadares Gaia	2	2	0	0	+5	6
4	Vilaverdense	2	2	0	0	+3	6
5	Bragança	2	2	0	0	+2	6
6	Varzim	2	2	0	0	+2	6
7	Pombal	2	1	1	0	+2	4
8	Oriental Lisboa	2	1	1	0	+1	4
9	Oliveira Hospital	2	1	1	0	+1	4
10	Benfica Castelo Branco	2	1	0	1	+7	3
11	Fontinhas	1	1	0	0	+5	3
12	Fafe	2	1	0	1	+4	3
13	Vitoria Setubal	1	1	0	0	+4	3
14	Felgueiras 1932	1	1	0	0	+3	3
15	Dumiense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
16	FC Serpa	1	1	0	0	+3	3
17	Sertanense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
18	Caldas	1	1	0	0	+3	3
19	Juventude Évora	2	1	0	1	+2	3
20	Os Marialvas	1	1	0	0	+2	3
21	Sanjoanense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
22	CF Os Belenenses	1	1	0	0	+2	3
23	Alverca	1	1	0	0	+2	3
24	Lagos	1	1	0	0	+2	3
25	Canelas 2010	1	1	0	0	+2	3
26	Ferreiras	1	1	0	0	+2	3
27	Camacha	1	1	0	0	+1	3
28	UD da Serra	2	1	0	1	+0	3
29	Gondomar	2	1	0	1	+0	3
30	Sintrense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
31	Arronches e Benfica	2	1	0	1	+0	3
32	União Santarém	2	1	0	1	+0	3
33	Lajense	2	1	0	1	-1	3
34	Oriental Dragon	2	1	0	1	-1	3
35	Olhanense	2	1	0	1	-1	3
36	AR São Martinho	1	0	1	0	+0	1
37	Machico	1	0	1	0	+0	1
38	Academica	1	0	1	0	+0	1
39	Recreativa de Lamelas	1	0	1	0	+0	1
40	Merelinense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
41	Lusitânia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
42	Freamunde	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	Leça	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	Resende	1	0	0	1	-1	0
45	SC Paivense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
46	Alcains	1	0	0	1	-1	0
47	Marinhense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
48	Santa Eulália	1	0	0	1	-1	0
49	Alpendorada	1	0	0	1	-1	0
50	União de Leiria	1	0	0	1	-1	0
51	Águeda	1	0	0	1	-1	0
52	Vasco Gama VF do Campo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
53	Silves	1	0	0	1	-2	0
54	Vila Caíz	1	0	0	1	-2	0
55	Lusitano Évora 1911	1	0	0	1	-2	0
56	Coruchense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
57	Angrense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
58	Atlético Reguengos	1	0	0	1	-3	0
59	Lusitano FCV	1	0	0	1	-3	0
60	Joane	1	0	0	1	-3	0
61	Loures	1	0	0	1	-3	0
62	Fabril Barreiro	1	0	0	1	-4	0
63	Maria da Fonte	1	0	0	1	-4	0
64	Vinhais	1	0	0	1	-4	0
65	Rebordelo	1	0	0	1	-5	0
66	Vasco da Gama Vidigueira	1	0	0	1	-5	0
67	Moura	1	0	0	1	-5	0
68	Sporting Mêda	1	0	0	1	-6	0
69	1º Maio Funchal	1	0	0	1	-8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Beira-Mar	2	2	0	0	+9	6
2	Vianense	2	2	0	0	+6	6
3	Montalegre	2	2	0	0	+6	6
4	Belenenses	2	2	0	0	+5	6
5	Tirsense	2	2	0	0	+2	6
6	Paredes	2	1	1	0	+1	4
7	FC Serpa	1	1	0	0	+8	3
8	Leixoes	1	1	0	0	+5	3
9	Dumiense	1	1	0	0	+5	3
10	Academico Viseu	1	1	0	0	+4	3
11	Merelinense	1	1	0	0	+4	3
12	Oliveirense	1	1	0	0	+4	3
13	Olhanense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
14	Sanjoanense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
15	Courense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
16	Moreirense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
17	Amora	1	1	0	0	+2	3
18	Fontinhas	1	1	0	0	+2	3
19	Trofense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
20	Canelas 2010	1	1	0	0	+2	3
21	Nacional	1	1	0	0	+2	3
22	Rabo Peixe	1	1	0	0	+1	3
23	Joane	1	1	0	0	+1	3
24	Penafiel	1	1	0	0	+1	3
25	Vilafranquense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
26	Real	1	1	0	0	+1	3
27	Resende	1	1	0	0	+1	3
28	Anadia	1	1	0	0	+1	3
29	Felgueiras 1932	1	1	0	0	+1	3
30	Sertanense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
31	União de Leiria	1	1	0	0	+1	3
32	Farense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
33	Pevidem	1	1	0	0	+1	3
34	Mafra	1	1	0	0	+1	3
35	Imortal Albufeira	1	1	0	0	+1	3
36	Praiense	2	1	0	1	-4	3
37	Guarda Desportiva	1	0	1	0	+0	1
38	União de Tomar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
39	Estrela	1	0	1	0	+0	1
40	Alverca	1	0	1	0	+0	1
41	Tondela	1	0	1	0	+0	1
42	Camacha	1	0	1	0	+0	1
43	São Roque (Açores)	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	Monção	1	0	0	1	-1	0
45	1º Dezembro	1	0	0	1	-1	0
46	Vila Meã	1	0	0	1	-1	0
47	Atlético CP	1	0	0	1	-1	0
48	Ferreiras	1	0	0	1	-1	0
49	Rebordosa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
50	Madalena	1	0	0	1	-1	0
51	Fazendense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
52	Amarante	1	0	0	1	-1	0
53	Gavionenses	1	0	0	1	-1	0
54	Lusitânia Lourosa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
55	Feirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	Monte Trigo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	Olímpico do Montijo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	Atlético Arcos	1	0	0	1	-2	0
59	Vila Cortez	1	0	0	1	-2	0
60	Os Marialvas	1	0	0	1	-2	0
61	Torreense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
62	UD Rio Maior	1	0	0	1	-2	0
63	Comércio Indústria	1	0	0	1	-2	0
64	Régua	1	0	0	1	-2	0
65	Mosteirense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
66	Culatrense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
67	CD Olivais e Moscavide	1	0	0	1	-2	0
68	GR Vigor Mocidade	1	0	0	1	-2	0
69	Salgueiros	1	0	0	1	-3	0
70	Mondinense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
71	Brito	1	0	0	1	-3	0
72	Moncarapachense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
73	Castrense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
74	Lagos	1	0	0	1	-3	0
75	Castro Daire	1	0	0	1	-3	0
76	SC Covilha	1	0	0	1	-3	0
77	Pedrógão São Pedro	1	0	0	1	-4	0
78	Vilar de Perdizes	1	0	0	1	-4	0
79	Ribeira Brava	1	0	0	1	-5	0
80	AD Portomosense	1	0	0	1	-6	0
81	Mortágua	1	0	0	1	-6	0
82	Águias do Moradal	1	0	0	1	-8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.