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Primeira Liga

Referee: Nuno Miguel Serrano Almeida

Moreirense

U T U S T

0–1

Full-time

Chaves

S T U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Moreirense Chaves

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,2

3,8

Scored

0,8

1,5

Conceded

1,3

2,3

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,8

This season — Primeira Liga · 22/22 matches

Win Ø 27%

18%

36%

Points per game

0,9

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,3

2,9

Scored

0,8

1,3

Conceded

1,5

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

51% Possession 49%

10 Shots 4

1 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

8 Corners 0

1 Offside 1

18 Free kicks against 14

3 Yellow cards 3

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Moreirense 17. · Chaves 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	23	17	5	1	+44	56
2	Porto	21	17	4	0	+43	55
3	Sp Lisbon	22	16	5	1	+32	53
4	Sp Braga	22	15	1	6	+20	46
5	Rio Ave	22	11	3	8	+5	36
6	Chaves	22	8	6	8	-7	30
7	Boavista	23	9	3	11	-9	30
8	Maritimo	23	8	6	9	-10	30
9	Guimaraes	22	9	2	11	-8	29
10	Portimonense	23	7	6	10	-1	27
11	Tondela	22	7	4	11	-8	25
12	Belenenses	23	6	6	11	-13	24
13	Aves	23	5	6	12	-11	21
14	Pacos Ferreira	22	5	6	11	-15	21
15	Estoril	22	6	3	13	-19	21
16	Feirense	23	6	2	15	-13	20
17	Moreirense	22	4	7	11	-15	19
18	Vitoria Setubal	22	3	9	10	-15	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	12	10	2	0	+22	32
2	Benfica	11	10	1	0	+30	31
3	Porto	11	10	1	0	+27	31
4	Sp Braga	12	10	0	2	+20	30
5	Rio Ave	11	7	1	3	+9	22
6	Maritimo	11	6	3	2	+3	21
7	Boavista	11	7	0	4	+0	21
8	Guimaraes	10	6	1	3	-1	19
9	Portimonense	11	5	2	4	+5	17
10	Belenenses	11	4	4	3	+1	16
11	Pacos Ferreira	11	4	4	3	+0	16
12	Vitoria Setubal	11	3	5	3	+0	14
13	Chaves	11	3	5	3	-1	14
14	Estoril	11	4	1	6	-4	13
15	Feirense	12	4	1	7	-6	13
16	Tondela	11	3	2	6	-5	11
17	Moreirense	11	1	6	4	-6	9
18	Aves	12	2	3	7	-8	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	12	7	4	1	+14	25
2	Porto	10	7	3	0	+16	24
3	Sp Lisbon	10	6	3	1	+10	21
4	Sp Braga	10	5	1	4	+0	16
5	Chaves	11	5	1	5	-6	16
6	Tondela	11	4	2	5	-3	14
7	Rio Ave	11	4	2	5	-4	14
8	Aves	11	3	3	5	-3	12
9	Portimonense	12	2	4	6	-6	10
10	Guimaraes	12	3	1	8	-7	10
11	Moreirense	11	3	1	7	-9	10
12	Boavista	12	2	3	7	-9	9
13	Maritimo	12	2	3	7	-13	9
14	Belenenses	12	2	2	8	-14	8
15	Estoril	11	2	2	7	-15	8
16	Feirense	11	2	1	8	-7	7
17	Pacos Ferreira	11	1	2	8	-15	5
18	Vitoria Setubal	11	0	4	7	-15	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.