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Primeira Liga
Referee: Hugo Miguel
Chaves
S S U T T
2–0
Full-time
Moreirense
S T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Chaves Moreirense
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
33%
50%
Points per game
1,3
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
83%
50%
Both score Ø 67%
83%
50%
Average goals
4,7
2,5
Scored
2,3
1,5
Conceded
2,3
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+0,5
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

48% Possession 52%
10 Shots 13
2 Shots on target 1
2 Blocked shots 5
1 Goalkeeper saves 0
6 Corners 5
15 Free kicks against 19
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Porto 34 29 4 1 +64 91
2 Sp Lisbon 34 27 4 3 +50 85
3 Benfica 34 23 5 6 +48 74
4 Sp Braga 34 19 8 7 +21 65
5 Gil Vicente 34 13 12 9 +5 51
6 Guimaraes 34 13 9 12 +9 48
7 Santa Clara 34 9 13 12 -16 40
8 Famalicao 34 9 12 13 -6 39
9 Estoril 34 9 12 13 -7 39
10 Maritimo 34 9 11 14 -5 38
11 Boavista 34 7 17 10 -13 38
12 Portimonense 34 10 8 16 -14 38
13 Pacos Ferreira 34 9 11 14 -15 38
14 Vizela 34 7 12 15 -21 33
15 Arouca 34 7 10 17 -24 31
16 Moreirense 34 7 8 19 -18 29
17 Tondela 34 7 7 20 -26 28
18 Belenenses 34 5 11 18 -32 26

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Chaves Moreirense
João Queirós 🟨
9′
1–0 João Teixeira
15′
24′
🟨 Rafael Martins
Half-time 1–0
Patrick 🔁
↦ Platiny
64′
Juninho 🔁
↦ Wellington Carvalho
65′
2–0 João Correia
Batxi
68′
69′
🔁 I. Camará
↦ Sori Mané
69′
🔁 André Luís
↦ Rodrigo Conceição
71′
🟨 Gonçalo Franco
77′
🔁 Galego
↦ Derik Lacerda
Kevin Pina 🔁
↦ João Teixeira
81′
88′
🔁 Walterson
↦ Rafael Martins
88′
🔁 Fábio Pacheco
↦ Gonçalo Franco
Rúben Pereira 🔁
↦ N. Obiora
94′
Adriano Castanheira 🔁
↦ Batxi
94′
Full-time 2–0

Line-ups

Chaves

4-2-3-1
28 Paulo Vítor G
44 João Queirós D
5 Bruno Langa D
4 Alexsandro Ribeiro D
40 N. Obiora M
10 João Teixeira M
26 Guima M
77 João Correia D
21 Wellington Carvalho M
99 Platiny F
11 Batxi M
Bench (9)
9 Patrick
20 Juninho
6 Kevin Pina
3 Rúben Pereira
22 Adriano Castanheira
2 Nuno Campos
19 João Mendes
12 Samu
95

Coach: Vítor Campelos

Moreirense

4-1-4-1
1 Kewin G
77 Paulinho M
28 Pablo D
4 Artur Jorge D
2 Rodrigo Conceição D
18 Pedro Amador D
35 Jefferson M
16 Sori Mané M
88 Gonçalo Franco M
99 Rafael Martins F
27 Derik Lacerda M
Bench (9)
8 I. Camará
9 André Luís
37 Galego
7 Walterson
6 Fábio Pacheco
13 Matheus Silva
19 S. Vitória
25 N. Jambor
14 Mateus Pasinato

Coach: Sá Pinto

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Hugo Miguel · 125 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,2 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
31,7 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,17 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.