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Primeira Liga

Referee: Hugo Miguel

Arouca

S T T T U

1–1

Full-time

Sp Braga

U S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arouca Sp Braga

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

0,7

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

17%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,0

2,8

Scored

0,7

1,8

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,8

This season — Primeira Liga · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

0,7

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

17%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,0

2,8

Scored

0,7

1,8

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

44% Possession 56%

12 Shots 7

5 Shots on target 1

4 Blocked shots 2

0 Goalkeeper saves 4

5 Corners 3

3 Offside 1

16 Free kicks against 20

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arouca 17. · Sp Braga 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	7	6	1	0	+13	19
2	Porto	7	5	1	1	+11	16
3	Sp Lisbon	7	5	1	1	+7	16
4	Sp Braga	6	4	1	1	+5	13
5	Chaves	7	3	3	1	+2	12
6	Guimaraes	7	3	2	2	+1	11
7	Rio Ave	7	3	1	3	+0	10
8	Belenenses	7	2	3	2	-2	9
9	Maritimo	7	3	0	4	-3	9
10	Feirense	7	3	0	4	-7	9
11	Pacos Ferreira	7	2	2	3	+0	8
12	Vitoria Setubal	7	2	2	3	-1	8
13	Boavista	7	2	2	3	-2	8
14	Estoril	7	2	1	4	-4	7
15	Nacional	7	2	0	5	-5	6
16	Tondela	7	1	2	4	-5	5
17	Arouca	6	1	1	4	-4	4
18	Moreirense	7	1	1	5	-6	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	4	4	0	0	+8	12
2	Porto	3	3	0	0	+6	9
3	Benfica	3	2	1	0	+6	7
4	Sp Braga	3	2	1	0	+4	7
5	Boavista	4	2	1	1	+3	7
6	Rio Ave	4	2	0	2	+0	6
7	Vitoria Setubal	4	2	0	2	+0	6
8	Guimaraes	4	1	2	1	+1	5
9	Belenenses	3	1	2	0	+1	5
10	Chaves	4	1	2	1	+0	5
11	Pacos Ferreira	3	1	1	1	+0	4
12	Tondela	4	1	1	2	-2	4
13	Arouca	3	1	0	2	+0	3
14	Maritimo	3	1	0	2	-1	3
15	Estoril	3	1	0	2	-2	3
16	Nacional	4	1	0	3	-5	3
17	Feirense	3	1	0	2	-5	3
18	Moreirense	3	0	1	2	-2	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	4	4	0	0	+7	12
2	Porto	4	2	1	1	+5	7
3	Chaves	3	2	1	0	+2	7
4	Sp Braga	3	2	0	1	+1	6
5	Guimaraes	3	2	0	1	+0	6
6	Feirense	4	2	0	2	-2	6
7	Maritimo	4	2	0	2	-2	6
8	Pacos Ferreira	4	1	1	2	+0	4
9	Rio Ave	3	1	1	1	+0	4
10	Sp Lisbon	3	1	1	1	-1	4
11	Estoril	4	1	1	2	-2	4
12	Belenenses	4	1	1	2	-3	4
13	Nacional	3	1	0	2	+0	3
14	Moreirense	4	1	0	3	-4	3
15	Vitoria Setubal	3	0	2	1	-1	2
16	Tondela	3	0	1	2	-3	1
17	Arouca	3	0	1	2	-4	1
18	Boavista	3	0	1	2	-5	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.