Primeira Liga
Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Arouca
Santa Clara
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 0–0
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Porto
|
29 | 25 | 4 | 0 | +53 | 79 |
| 2 |
Sp Lisbon
|
29 | 23 | 4 | 2 | +41 | 73 |
| 3 |
Benfica
|
29 | 20 | 4 | 5 | +44 | 64 |
| 4 |
Sp Braga
|
29 | 16 | 7 | 6 | +19 | 55 |
| 5 |
Gil Vicente
|
29 | 12 | 10 | 7 | +10 | 46 |
| 6 |
Guimaraes
|
29 | 11 | 6 | 12 | +0 | 39 |
| 7 |
Pacos Ferreira
|
29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | -7 | 36 |
| 8 |
Estoril
|
29 | 8 | 10 | 11 | -4 | 34 |
| 9 |
Santa Clara
|
29 | 8 | 10 | 11 | -14 | 34 |
| 10 |
Boavista
|
29 | 6 | 15 | 8 | -7 | 33 |
| 11 |
Maritimo
|
29 | 8 | 9 | 12 | -7 | 33 |
| 12 |
Portimonense
|
29 | 8 | 8 | 13 | -7 | 32 |
| 13 |
Vizela
|
29 | 6 | 11 | 12 | -16 | 29 |
| 14 |
Famalicao
|
29 | 6 | 10 | 13 | -10 | 28 |
| 15 |
Arouca
|
29 | 6 | 8 | 15 | -23 | 26 |
| 16 |
Tondela
|
29 | 7 | 4 | 18 | -21 | 25 |
| 17 |
Moreirense
|
29 | 5 | 8 | 16 | -20 | 23 |
| 18 |
Belenenses
|
29 | 4 | 9 | 16 | -31 | 21 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Coach: Armando Evangelista
Paulo Henrique
D
Coach: Mário Silva
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Boavista
Arouca
Arouca
Gil Vicente
Tondela
Arouca
Arouca
Pacos Ferreira
Sp Lisbon
Arouca
Manuel Oliveira · 149 kamper i vår database
🟥 Red cards: 0,32 per match
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.