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Primeira Liga

Referee: Manuel Mota

Estoril

T T U U T

1–0

Full-time

Moreirense

T S S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Estoril Moreirense

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,7

2,2

Scored

0,8

1,0

Conceded

1,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-0,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 32/32 matches

Win Ø 22%

25%

19%

Points per game

1,1

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

47%

44%

Both score Ø 52%

53%

50%

Average goals

2,4

Scored

1,1

0,9

Conceded

1,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

45% Possession 55%

6 Shots 18

2 Shots on target 5

1 Blocked shots 6

5 Goalkeeper saves 1

2 Corners 8

2 Offside 2

17 Free kicks against 10

6 Yellow cards 3

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Estoril 11. · Moreirense 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	32	27	4	1	+61	85
2	Sp Lisbon	32	25	4	3	+45	79
3	Benfica	32	22	5	5	+47	71
4	Sp Braga	32	18	8	6	+21	62
5	Gil Vicente	32	12	12	8	+7	48
6	Guimaraes	33	12	9	12	+4	45
7	Pacos Ferreira	32	9	11	12	-11	38
8	Maritimo	32	9	10	13	-4	37
9	Boavista	33	7	16	10	-13	37
10	Santa Clara	32	8	13	11	-14	37
11	Estoril	32	8	12	12	-6	36
12	Portimonense	32	9	8	15	-14	35
13	Famalicao	32	7	12	13	-8	33
14	Vizela	32	7	11	14	-18	32
15	Arouca	32	7	9	16	-23	30
16	Tondela	32	7	6	19	-23	27
17	Moreirense	32	6	8	18	-20	26
18	Belenenses	32	5	10	17	-31	25

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	16	14	2	0	+37	44
2	Sp Lisbon	16	13	1	2	+22	40
3	Benfica	16	10	3	3	+21	33
4	Sp Braga	16	9	4	3	+13	31
5	Guimaraes	16	8	3	5	+9	27
6	Santa Clara	16	7	6	3	-1	27
7	Boavista	17	4	10	3	+0	22
8	Gil Vicente	16	5	6	5	+3	21
9	Pacos Ferreira	16	5	6	5	-1	21
10	Famalicao	16	4	7	5	+0	19
11	Maritimo	16	4	6	6	+3	18
12	Vizela	16	4	6	6	-5	18
13	Arouca	16	5	3	8	-14	18
14	Belenenses	16	5	3	8	-14	18
15	Estoril	16	3	8	5	-1	17
16	Portimonense	16	4	4	8	-6	16
17	Moreirense	16	4	3	9	-4	15
18	Tondela	16	4	3	9	-9	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	16	13	2	1	+24	41
2	Sp Lisbon	16	12	3	1	+23	39
3	Benfica	16	12	2	2	+26	38
4	Sp Braga	16	9	4	3	+8	31
5	Gil Vicente	16	7	6	3	+4	27
6	Estoril	16	5	4	7	-5	19
7	Maritimo	16	5	4	7	-7	19
8	Portimonense	16	5	4	7	-8	19
9	Guimaraes	17	4	6	7	-5	18
10	Pacos Ferreira	16	4	5	7	-10	17
11	Boavista	16	3	6	7	-13	15
12	Famalicao	16	3	5	8	-8	14
13	Vizela	16	3	5	8	-13	14
14	Arouca	16	2	6	8	-9	12
15	Tondela	16	3	3	10	-14	12
16	Moreirense	16	2	5	9	-16	11
17	Santa Clara	16	1	7	8	-13	10
18	Belenenses	16	0	7	9	-17	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.