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Primeira Liga

Referee: Goncalo Martins

Estoril

T T T T U

2–0

Full-time

Moreirense

S U S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Estoril Moreirense

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,0

2,8

Scored

0,5

1,2

Conceded

1,5

1,7

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-0,5

This season — Primeira Liga · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 13%

25%

Points per game

0,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 38%

25%

50%

Both score Ø 25%

25%

Average goals

1,8

2,3

Scored

0,3

1,0

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,3

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

42% Possession 58%

12 Shots 14

5 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 5

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

9 Corners 5

1 Offside 0

11 Free kicks against 15

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Estoril 18. · Moreirense 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	4	4	0	0	+7	12
2	Sp Braga	4	3	1	0	+6	10
3	Benfica	4	3	1	0	+5	10
4	Porto	4	3	0	1	+5	9
5	Vitoria Setubal	4	2	2	0	+4	8
6	Rio Ave	4	2	1	1	+0	7
7	Belenenses	4	2	1	1	+0	7
8	Chaves	4	1	3	0	+1	6
9	Guimaraes	4	2	0	2	+0	6
10	Feirense	4	2	0	2	-1	6
11	Boavista	4	1	2	1	-1	5
12	Moreirense	4	1	1	2	-1	4
13	Arouca	4	1	0	3	-3	3
14	Nacional	5	1	0	4	-4	3
15	Maritimo	5	1	0	4	-6	3
16	Pacos Ferreira	4	0	2	2	-3	2
17	Tondela	4	0	1	3	-4	1
18	Estoril	4	0	1	3	-5	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	3	3	0	0	+6	9
2	Porto	2	2	0	0	+4	6
3	Vitoria Setubal	2	2	0	0	+4	6
4	Sp Braga	2	1	1	0	+3	4
5	Boavista	2	1	1	0	+2	4
6	Belenenses	2	1	1	0	+1	4
7	Guimaraes	2	1	0	1	+1	3
8	Arouca	2	1	0	1	+1	3
9	Nacional	3	1	0	2	-1	3
10	Rio Ave	2	1	0	1	-1	3
11	Feirense	2	1	0	1	-2	3
12	Chaves	2	0	2	0	+0	2
13	Benfica	1	0	1	0	+0	1
14	Moreirense	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Pacos Ferreira	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Maritimo	2	0	0	2	-3	0
17	Tondela	2	0	0	2	-3	0
18	Estoril	2	0	0	2	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	3	3	0	0	+5	9
2	Sp Braga	2	2	0	0	+3	6
3	Chaves	2	1	1	0	+1	4
4	Rio Ave	2	1	1	0	+1	4
5	Porto	2	1	0	1	+1	3
6	Feirense	2	1	0	1	+1	3
7	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
8	Moreirense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
9	Guimaraes	2	1	0	1	-1	3
10	Belenenses	2	1	0	1	-1	3
11	Maritimo	3	1	0	2	-3	3
12	Vitoria Setubal	2	0	2	0	+0	2
13	Tondela	2	0	1	1	-1	1
14	Estoril	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Pacos Ferreira	2	0	1	1	-2	1
16	Boavista	2	0	1	1	-3	1
17	Nacional	2	0	0	2	-3	0
18	Arouca	2	0	0	2	-4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.