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Primeira Liga

Referee: Manuel Mota

Moreirense

U T U T T

1–0

Full-time

Estoril

U U T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Moreirense Estoril

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,0

2,5

Scored

0,7

1,2

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 14/15 matches

Win Ø 24%

40%

Points per game

0,6

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 49%

57%

40%

Both score Ø 62%

64%

60%

Average goals

2,7

2,4

Scored

1,0

1,4

Conceded

1,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

33% Possession 67%

5 Shots 13

3 Shots on target 4

0 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

7 Corners 11

3 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Moreirense 17. · Estoril 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	15	13	2	0	+30	41
2	Sp Lisbon	15	13	2	0	+22	41
3	Benfica	15	12	1	2	+34	37
4	Sp Braga	15	8	4	3	+8	28
5	Estoril	15	6	7	2	+6	25
6	Portimonense	15	7	3	5	+2	24
7	Gil Vicente	16	6	5	5	+5	23
8	Guimaraes	15	6	4	5	+5	22
9	Maritimo	16	4	5	7	-6	17
10	Boavista	15	3	6	6	-8	15
11	Pacos Ferreira	15	3	5	7	-8	14
12	Arouca	15	3	5	7	-9	14
13	Vizela	15	2	7	6	-13	13
14	Santa Clara	15	3	4	8	-17	13
15	Tondela	15	4	0	11	-13	12
16	Famalicao	15	2	5	8	-11	11
17	Moreirense	14	1	6	7	-10	9
18	Belenenses	14	1	5	8	-17	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	8	7	1	0	+12	22
2	Porto	7	7	0	0	+16	21
3	Sp Braga	8	5	2	1	+10	17
4	Benfica	7	5	0	2	+13	15
5	Guimaraes	7	4	1	2	+6	13
6	Boavista	8	3	4	1	+3	13
7	Maritimo	8	3	3	2	+4	12
8	Santa Clara	8	3	2	3	-7	11
9	Arouca	7	3	1	3	-2	10
10	Tondela	8	3	0	5	-4	9
11	Gil Vicente	8	2	2	4	+0	8
12	Estoril	7	1	5	1	+0	8
13	Portimonense	8	2	2	4	-4	8
14	Vizela	7	1	4	2	-4	7
15	Moreirense	7	1	3	3	-2	6
16	Pacos Ferreira	8	1	3	4	-4	6
17	Belenenses	7	1	2	4	-10	5
18	Famalicao	7	0	3	4	-8	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	8	7	1	0	+21	22
2	Porto	8	6	2	0	+14	20
3	Sp Lisbon	7	6	1	0	+10	19
4	Estoril	8	5	2	1	+6	17
5	Portimonense	7	5	1	1	+6	16
6	Gil Vicente	8	4	3	1	+5	15
7	Sp Braga	7	3	2	2	-2	11
8	Guimaraes	8	2	3	3	-1	9
9	Famalicao	8	2	2	4	-3	8
10	Pacos Ferreira	7	2	2	3	-4	8
11	Vizela	8	1	3	4	-9	6
12	Maritimo	8	1	2	5	-10	5
13	Arouca	8	0	4	4	-7	4
14	Belenenses	7	0	3	4	-7	3
15	Moreirense	7	0	3	4	-8	3
16	Tondela	7	1	0	6	-9	3
17	Santa Clara	7	0	2	5	-10	2
18	Boavista	7	0	2	5	-11	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.