Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Hamburg
Hannover
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 2–1
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Schalke 04
|
32 | 18 | 5 | 9 | +26 | 59 |
| 2 |
Darmstadt
|
33 | 17 | 6 | 10 | +22 | 57 |
| 3 |
Werder Bremen
|
32 | 16 | 9 | 7 | +17 | 57 |
| 4 |
Hamburg
|
32 | 14 | 12 | 6 | +30 | 54 |
| 5 |
St Pauli
|
32 | 15 | 9 | 8 | +14 | 54 |
| 6 |
Paderborn
|
33 | 13 | 12 | 8 | +15 | 51 |
| 7 |
Nurnberg
|
32 | 14 | 9 | 9 | +4 | 51 |
| 8 |
Heidenheim
|
32 | 13 | 7 | 12 | -6 | 46 |
| 9 |
Fortuna Dusseldorf
|
33 | 11 | 11 | 11 | +5 | 44 |
| 10 |
Holstein Kiel
|
32 | 11 | 9 | 12 | -9 | 42 |
| 11 |
Regensburg
|
32 | 10 | 10 | 12 | +3 | 40 |
| 12 |
Karlsruhe
|
32 | 9 | 13 | 10 | +1 | 40 |
| 13 |
Hansa Rostock
|
32 | 10 | 10 | 12 | -10 | 40 |
| 14 |
Hannover
|
32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | -14 | 39 |
| 15 |
Sandhausen
|
33 | 9 | 11 | 13 | -14 | 38 |
| 16 |
Dresden
|
32 | 7 | 10 | 15 | -12 | 31 |
| 17 |
Erzgebirge Aue
|
32 | 5 | 8 | 19 | -38 | 23 |
| 18 | Ingolstadt | 32 | 4 | 8 | 20 | -34 | 20 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Hamburg
Regensburg
Hamburg
Hamburg
Karlsruhe
Holstein Kiel
Hamburg
Hamburg
Erzgebirge Aue
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.