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Primeira Liga

Referee: Rui Costa

Portimonense

T S T S T

2–3

Full-time

Sp Lisbon

S S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Portimonense Sp Lisbon

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

33%

83%

Points per game

1,0

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

2,5

3,3

Scored

0,5

2,5

Conceded

2,0

0,8

Goal diff per game

-1,5

+1,7

This season — Primeira Liga · 32/32 matches

Win Ø 53%

28%

78%

Points per game

1,1

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 41%

34%

47%

Both score Ø 43%

41%

44%

Average goals

2,2

2,7

Scored

0,9

2,1

Conceded

1,3

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,4

+1,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

29% Possession 71%

5 Shots 28

3 Shots on target 8

1 Blocked shots 6

5 Goalkeeper saves 1

1 Corners 8

0 Offside 1

7 Free kicks against 13

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Portimonense 12. · Sp Lisbon 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	33	28	4	1	+62	88
2	Sp Lisbon	32	25	4	3	+45	79
3	Benfica	33	22	5	6	+46	71
4	Sp Braga	32	18	8	6	+21	62
5	Gil Vicente	32	12	12	8	+7	48
6	Guimaraes	33	12	9	12	+4	45
7	Estoril	33	9	12	12	-5	39
8	Pacos Ferreira	32	9	11	12	-11	38
9	Maritimo	32	9	10	13	-4	37
10	Boavista	33	7	16	10	-13	37
11	Santa Clara	32	8	13	11	-14	37
12	Portimonense	32	9	8	15	-14	35
13	Famalicao	32	7	12	13	-8	33
14	Vizela	32	7	11	14	-18	32
15	Arouca	32	7	9	16	-23	30
16	Tondela	32	7	6	19	-23	27
17	Moreirense	33	6	8	19	-21	26
18	Belenenses	32	5	10	17	-31	25

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	16	14	2	0	+37	44
2	Sp Lisbon	16	13	1	2	+22	40
3	Benfica	17	10	3	4	+20	33
4	Sp Braga	16	9	4	3	+13	31
5	Guimaraes	16	8	3	5	+9	27
6	Santa Clara	16	7	6	3	-1	27
7	Boavista	17	4	10	3	+0	22
8	Gil Vicente	16	5	6	5	+3	21
9	Pacos Ferreira	16	5	6	5	-1	21
10	Estoril	17	4	8	5	+0	20
11	Famalicao	16	4	7	5	+0	19
12	Maritimo	16	4	6	6	+3	18
13	Vizela	16	4	6	6	-5	18
14	Arouca	16	5	3	8	-14	18
15	Belenenses	16	5	3	8	-14	18
16	Portimonense	16	4	4	8	-6	16
17	Moreirense	16	4	3	9	-4	15
18	Tondela	16	4	3	9	-9	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	17	14	2	1	+25	44
2	Sp Lisbon	16	12	3	1	+23	39
3	Benfica	16	12	2	2	+26	38
4	Sp Braga	16	9	4	3	+8	31
5	Gil Vicente	16	7	6	3	+4	27
6	Estoril	16	5	4	7	-5	19
7	Maritimo	16	5	4	7	-7	19
8	Portimonense	16	5	4	7	-8	19
9	Guimaraes	17	4	6	7	-5	18
10	Pacos Ferreira	16	4	5	7	-10	17
11	Boavista	16	3	6	7	-13	15
12	Famalicao	16	3	5	8	-8	14
13	Vizela	16	3	5	8	-13	14
14	Arouca	16	2	6	8	-9	12
15	Tondela	16	3	3	10	-14	12
16	Moreirense	17	2	5	10	-17	11
17	Santa Clara	16	1	7	8	-13	10
18	Belenenses	16	0	7	9	-17	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.