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Premier League

Referee: M Salisbury

Brentford

S S S U T

3–0

Full-time

Southampton

T S T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brentford Southampton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,7

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,7

3,0

Scored

1,5

0,8

Conceded

1,2

2,2

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-1,3

This season — Premier League · 35/35 matches

Win Ø 29%

31%

26%

Points per game

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

54%

Both score Ø 56%

51%

60%

Average goals

2,7

2,8

Scored

1,2

Conceded

1,5

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

40% Possession 60%

18 Shots 19

5 Shots on target 4

5 Blocked shots 5

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 7

0 Offside 2

12 Free kicks against 9

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Brentford 14. · Southampton 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	34	26	5	3	+63	83
2	Liverpool	34	25	7	2	+64	82
3	Chelsea	34	19	9	6	+39	66
4	Arsenal	34	20	3	11	+13	63
5	Tottenham	34	19	4	11	+20	61
6	Man United	36	16	10	10	+5	58
7	West Ham	35	15	7	13	+7	52
8	Wolves	34	15	4	15	+1	49
9	Brighton	35	10	14	11	-8	44
10	Newcastle	35	11	10	14	-16	43
11	Leicester	33	11	9	13	-6	42
12	Crystal Palace	34	9	14	11	+3	41
13	Aston Villa	33	12	4	17	-2	40
14	Brentford	35	11	7	17	-11	40
15	Southampton	35	9	13	13	-17	40
16	Burnley	34	7	13	14	-15	34
17	Leeds	34	8	10	16	-34	34
18	Everton	33	9	5	19	-20	32
19	Watford	34	6	4	24	-37	22
20	Norwich	34	5	6	23	-49	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	17	14	3	0	+38	45
2	Man City	17	13	2	2	+37	41
3	Arsenal	17	11	2	4	+13	35
4	Man United	19	10	5	4	+10	35
5	Tottenham	17	11	1	5	+15	34
6	West Ham	18	9	4	5	+7	31
7	Chelsea	16	8	5	3	+14	29
8	Leicester	16	8	4	4	+6	28
9	Newcastle	18	7	6	5	-3	27
10	Everton	17	8	2	7	+2	26
11	Southampton	18	6	7	5	+0	25
12	Crystal Palace	17	5	8	4	+8	23
13	Wolves	17	7	2	8	-1	23
14	Aston Villa	16	6	3	7	+1	21
15	Brentford	17	6	3	8	-1	21
16	Burnley	17	5	6	6	-4	21
17	Leeds	17	4	5	8	-16	17
18	Brighton	17	3	7	7	-10	16
19	Norwich	17	3	3	11	-22	12
20	Watford	17	2	1	14	-25	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	17	13	3	1	+26	42
2	Liverpool	17	11	4	2	+26	37
3	Chelsea	18	11	4	3	+25	37
4	Brighton	18	7	7	4	+2	28
5	Arsenal	17	9	1	7	+0	28
6	Tottenham	17	8	3	6	+5	27
7	Wolves	17	8	2	7	+2	26
8	Man United	17	6	5	6	-5	23
9	West Ham	17	6	3	8	+0	21
10	Aston Villa	17	6	1	10	-3	19
11	Brentford	18	5	4	9	-10	19
12	Crystal Palace	17	4	6	7	-5	18
13	Leeds	17	4	5	8	-18	17
14	Newcastle	17	4	4	9	-13	16
15	Watford	17	4	3	10	-12	15
16	Southampton	17	3	6	8	-17	15
17	Leicester	17	3	5	9	-12	14
18	Burnley	17	2	7	8	-11	13
19	Norwich	17	2	3	12	-27	9
20	Everton	16	1	3	12	-22	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.