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Championship

Referee: J Simpson

Middlesbrough

U S T S T

2–1

Full-time

Luton

S T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Middlesbrough Luton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

50%

83%

Points per game

1,7

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

3,5

2,2

Scored

2,0

1,3

Conceded

1,5

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,5

This season — Championship · 34/33 matches

Win Ø 48%

47%

48%

Points per game

1,6

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

38%

52%

Both score Ø 45%

50%

39%

Average goals

2,4

2,6

Scored

1,3

1,5

Conceded

1,0

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

56% Possession 44%

8 Shots 9

3 Shots on target 5

3 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 2

0 Offside 2

10 Free kicks against 20

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Middlesbrough 9. · Luton 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fulham	36	24	7	5	+57	79
2	Huddersfield	36	18	11	7	+18	65
3	Bournemouth	32	18	8	6	+24	62
4	Blackburn	36	17	9	10	+14	60
5	Sheffield United	34	17	7	10	+16	58
6	Coventry	35	16	9	10	+11	57
7	Luton	33	16	8	9	+12	56
8	QPR	35	16	8	11	+9	56
9	Middlesbrough	34	16	7	11	+10	55
10	Preston	37	13	14	10	+1	53
11	West Brom	36	14	10	12	+7	52
12	Nott'm Forest	32	14	8	10	+12	50
13	Millwall	34	13	10	11	+1	49
14	Blackpool	35	13	9	13	+1	48
15	Stoke	34	13	8	13	+6	47
16	Derby	37	11	12	14	-5	45
17	Swansea	33	12	8	13	-6	44
18	Cardiff	37	12	7	18	-9	43
19	Bristol City	36	12	7	17	-17	43
20	Hull	37	11	7	19	-7	40
21	Reading	36	11	6	19	-23	39
22	Birmingham	37	9	11	17	-18	38
23	Barnsley	34	5	9	20	-24	24
24	Peterboro	34	5	6	23	-45	21
25	Peterborough	34	5	6	23	-45	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fulham	20	13	4	3	+30	43
2	Blackburn	18	12	3	3	+17	39
3	Huddersfield	18	11	5	2	+15	38
4	Middlesbrough	18	12	2	4	+14	38
5	Luton	17	10	4	3	+13	34
6	Coventry	18	10	4	4	+13	34
7	West Brom	17	9	6	2	+14	33
8	QPR	18	9	6	3	+11	33
9	Derby	18	9	6	3	+8	33
10	Millwall	17	9	5	3	+8	32
11	Blackpool	19	10	2	7	+4	32
12	Sheffield United	16	9	3	4	+17	30
13	Bournemouth	15	9	3	3	+15	30
14	Swansea	16	8	4	4	+8	28
15	Stoke	18	8	4	6	+7	28
16	Nott'm Forest	17	8	3	6	+5	27
17	Preston	18	6	9	3	+3	27
18	Bristol City	18	7	5	6	+0	26
19	Cardiff	19	7	2	10	+1	23
20	Birmingham	18	6	5	7	-2	23
21	Reading	18	6	4	8	-8	22
22	Hull	18	5	3	10	-6	18
23	Peterboro	16	4	5	7	-6	17
24	Peterborough	16	4	5	7	-6	17
25	Barnsley	16	4	4	8	-7	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fulham	16	11	3	2	+27	36
2	Bournemouth	17	9	5	3	+9	32
3	Sheffield United	18	8	4	6	-1	28
4	Huddersfield	18	7	6	5	+3	27
5	Preston	19	7	5	7	-2	26
6	Nott'm Forest	15	6	5	4	+7	23
7	QPR	17	7	2	8	-2	23
8	Coventry	17	6	5	6	-2	23
9	Luton	16	6	4	6	-1	22
10	Hull	19	6	4	9	-1	22
11	Blackburn	18	5	6	7	-3	21
12	Cardiff	18	5	5	8	-10	20
13	Stoke	16	5	4	7	-1	19
14	West Brom	19	5	4	10	-7	19
15	Middlesbrough	16	4	5	7	-4	17
16	Millwall	17	4	5	8	-7	17
17	Reading	18	5	2	11	-15	17
18	Bristol City	18	5	2	11	-17	17
19	Blackpool	16	3	7	6	-3	16
20	Swansea	17	4	4	9	-14	16
21	Birmingham	19	3	6	10	-16	15
22	Derby	19	2	6	11	-13	12
23	Barnsley	18	1	5	12	-17	8
24	Peterboro	18	1	1	16	-39	4
25	Peterborough	18	1	1	16	-39	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.