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Premier League
Referee: A Marriner
Burnley
T S S U T
0–4
Full-time
Chelsea
U T U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Burnley Chelsea
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 33%
33%
33%
Points per game
1,3
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 17%
17%
17%
Both score Ø 42%
33%
50%
Average goals
1,8
2,0
Scored
1,0
1,2
Conceded
0,8
0,8
Goal diff per game
+0,2
+0,3
This season — Premier League · 25/25 matches
Win Ø 34%
12%
56%
Points per game
0,8
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
36%
48%
Both score Ø 48%
48%
48%
Average goals
2,2
2,7
Scored
0,9
2,0
Conceded
1,3
0,7
Goal diff per game
-0,4
+1,2
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

27% Possession 73%
6 Shots 11
1 Shots on target 5
3 Blocked shots 6
1 Goalkeeper saves 0
5 Corners 2
1 Offside 1
12 Free kicks against 7
2 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Burnley 18. · Chelsea 3.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Man City 27 21 3 3 +47 66
2 Liverpool 26 18 6 2 +50 60
3 Chelsea 25 14 8 3 +31 50
4 Man United 27 13 8 6 +10 47
5 West Ham 27 13 6 8 +12 45
6 Arsenal 24 14 3 7 +11 45
7 Tottenham 25 13 3 9 +3 42
8 Wolves 26 12 4 10 +3 40
9 Southampton 26 8 11 7 -3 35
10 Leicester 25 9 6 10 -3 33
11 Brighton 26 7 12 7 -5 33
12 Crystal Palace 27 6 12 9 -1 30
13 Aston Villa 25 9 3 13 -4 30
14 Newcastle 25 5 10 10 -17 25
15 Brentford 27 6 6 15 -17 24
16 Leeds 27 5 8 14 -32 23
17 Everton 24 6 4 14 -13 22
18 Burnley 25 3 12 10 -10 21
19 Watford 26 5 4 17 -22 19
20 Norwich 26 4 5 17 -40 17

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Burnley Chelsea
Half-time 0–1
47′
R. James 0–1
T. Chalobah
53′
K. Havertz 0–2
C. Pulisic
55′
K. Havertz 0–3
R. James
M. Cornet 🔁
↦ J. Rodriguez
63′
69′
C. Pulisic 0–4
70′
🔁 M. Kovačić
↦ R. James
70′
🔁 R. Loftus-Cheek
↦ N. Kanté
A. Barnes 🔁
↦ W. Weghorst
78′
78′
🔁 T. Werner
↦ M. Mount
Ashley Barnes 🟨
84′
Ashley Westwood 🟨
89′
Full-time 0–4

Line-ups

Burnley

4-4-2
1 N. Pope G
5 J. Tarkowski D
3 C. Taylor D
14 C. Roberts D
22 N. Collins D
17 A. Lennon M
18 A. Westwood M
8 J. Brownhill M
19 J. Rodriguez F
9 W. Weghorst F
11 D. McNeil M
Bench (9)
20 M. Cornet
10 A. Barnes
38 L. Richardson
4 J. Cork
28 K. Long
13 W. Hennessey
26 P. Bardsley
2 M. Lowton
37 B. Thomas

Coach: S. Dyche

Chelsea

3-4-2-1
16 É. Mendy G
6 Thiago Silva D
2 A. Rüdiger D
14 T. Chalobah D
24 R. James M
17 Saúl M
5 Jorginho M
7 N. Kanté M
19 M. Mount F
10 C. Pulisic F
29 K. Havertz F
Bench (9)
8 M. Kovačić
12 R. Loftus-Cheek
11 T. Werner
23 Kenedy
1 Kepa
31 M. Sarr
9 R. Lukaku
4 A. Christensen
22 H. Ziyech

Coach: T. Tuchel

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
7,44
U
4,15
B ✓
1,50
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
2,07
U2,5
1,77
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

A Marriner · 74 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,0 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
18,9 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,08 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.