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Serie A

Referee: D Massa

Roma

S U U U S

1–0

Full-time

Atalanta

U T U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Roma Atalanta

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

2,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,7

1,7

Scored

1,7

1,0

Conceded

1,0

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,3

This season — Serie A · 27/26 matches

Win Ø 49%

48%

50%

Points per game

1,6

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 61%

56%

65%

Both score Ø 59%

52%

65%

Average goals

2,9

3,1

Scored

1,7

1,9

Conceded

1,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,4

+0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

35% Possession 65%

13 Shots 7

4 Shots on target 4

6 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 3

3 Offside 4

18 Free kicks against 14

6 Yellow cards 4

1 Red cards 1

The table before the match Roma 6. · Atalanta 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	27	17	7	3	+38	58
2	Napoli	27	17	6	4	+30	57
3	Milan	27	17	6	4	+24	57
4	Juventus	27	14	8	5	+16	50
5	Atalanta	26	13	8	5	+20	47
6	Roma	27	13	5	9	+11	44
7	Lazio	27	12	7	8	+12	43
8	Fiorentina	26	13	3	10	+9	42
9	Verona	27	11	7	9	+9	40
10	Sassuolo	27	9	9	9	+0	36
11	Torino	26	9	6	11	+5	33
12	Bologna	26	9	5	12	-10	32
13	Empoli	27	8	7	12	-13	31
14	Udinese	26	6	11	9	-9	29
15	Sampdoria	28	7	5	16	-12	26
16	Spezia	27	7	5	15	-21	26
17	Cagliari	27	5	10	12	-20	25
18	Venezia	26	5	7	14	-23	22
19	Genoa	27	1	14	12	-25	17
20	Salernitana	26	3	6	17	-41	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	14	10	2	2	+23	32
2	Milan	14	8	3	3	+10	27
3	Napoli	13	8	2	3	+14	26
4	Verona	14	8	2	4	+12	26
5	Fiorentina	12	8	1	3	+15	25
6	Lazio	13	7	4	2	+14	25
7	Roma	14	7	4	3	+5	25
8	Torino	14	7	3	4	+11	24
9	Juventus	13	7	3	3	+8	24
10	Bologna	13	6	2	5	+1	20
11	Udinese	13	4	6	3	-2	18
12	Atalanta	13	4	5	4	+6	17
13	Sassuolo	14	4	5	5	-3	17
14	Sampdoria	14	4	3	7	-3	15
15	Spezia	13	3	3	7	-4	12
16	Cagliari	13	2	6	5	-6	12
17	Empoli	14	3	2	9	-15	11
18	Venezia	13	2	4	7	-10	10
19	Genoa	13	0	7	6	-10	7
20	Salernitana	13	1	4	8	-19	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	14	9	4	1	+16	31
2	Milan	13	9	3	1	+14	30
3	Atalanta	13	9	3	1	+14	30
4	Inter	13	7	5	1	+15	26
5	Juventus	14	7	5	2	+8	26
6	Empoli	13	5	5	3	+2	20
7	Roma	13	6	1	6	+6	19
8	Sassuolo	13	5	4	4	+3	19
9	Lazio	14	5	3	6	-2	18
10	Fiorentina	14	5	2	7	-6	17
11	Verona	13	3	5	5	-3	14
12	Spezia	14	4	2	8	-17	14
13	Cagliari	14	3	4	7	-14	13
14	Bologna	13	3	3	7	-11	12
15	Venezia	13	3	3	7	-13	12
16	Udinese	13	2	5	6	-7	11
17	Sampdoria	14	3	2	9	-9	11
18	Genoa	14	1	7	6	-15	10
19	Torino	12	2	3	7	-6	9
20	Salernitana	13	2	2	9	-22	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.