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Premier League

Referee: K Friend

Man United

S U U S S

0–0

Full-time

Watford

U T T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man United Watford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,3

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

67%

17%

Average goals

2,8

2,0

Scored

2,0

0,3

Conceded

0,8

1,7

Goal diff per game

+1,2

-1,3

This season — Premier League · 26/25 matches

Win Ø 35%

50%

20%

Points per game

1,8

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

46%

48%

Both score Ø 55%

62%

48%

Average goals

3,0

2,9

Scored

1,7

1,0

Conceded

1,3

1,9

Goal diff per game

+0,4

-0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

67% Possession 33%

22 Shots 10

3 Shots on target 2

7 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 3

2 Offside 2

2 Free kicks against 7

0 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man United 4. · Watford 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	26	20	3	3	+46	63
2	Liverpool	26	18	6	2	+50	60
3	Chelsea	25	14	8	3	+31	50
4	Man United	26	13	7	6	+10	46
5	Arsenal	24	14	3	7	+11	45
6	West Ham	26	12	6	8	+11	42
7	Tottenham	25	13	3	9	+3	42
8	Wolves	25	12	4	9	+4	40
9	Southampton	26	8	11	7	-3	35
10	Brighton	25	7	12	6	-3	33
11	Crystal Palace	26	6	11	9	-1	29
12	Leicester	23	7	6	10	-6	27
13	Aston Villa	24	8	3	13	-6	27
14	Brentford	26	6	6	14	-15	24
15	Leeds	26	5	8	13	-31	23
16	Everton	23	6	4	13	-12	22
17	Newcastle	24	4	10	10	-19	22
18	Burnley	23	3	11	9	-8	20
19	Watford	25	5	3	17	-22	18
20	Norwich	26	4	5	17	-40	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	13	10	3	0	+29	33
2	Man City	13	10	1	2	+27	31
3	Arsenal	13	9	2	2	+12	29
4	Chelsea	12	6	5	1	+17	23
5	Man United	13	7	2	4	+5	23
6	Southampton	13	5	7	1	+8	22
7	Tottenham	12	7	1	4	+3	22
8	West Ham	13	6	3	4	+5	21
9	Leicester	12	5	3	4	+3	18
10	Crystal Palace	13	4	5	4	+5	17
11	Wolves	12	5	2	5	+0	17
12	Everton	11	5	1	5	+1	16
13	Aston Villa	12	4	3	5	+0	15
14	Newcastle	13	3	6	4	-6	15
15	Brentford	13	4	2	7	-3	14
16	Brighton	12	3	5	4	-4	14
17	Leeds	13	3	4	6	-10	13
18	Burnley	11	2	6	3	+0	12
19	Norwich	13	2	3	8	-17	9
20	Watford	13	2	1	10	-19	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	13	10	2	1	+19	32
2	Liverpool	13	8	3	2	+21	27
3	Chelsea	13	8	3	2	+14	27
4	Man United	13	6	5	2	+5	23
5	Wolves	13	7	2	4	+4	23
6	West Ham	13	6	3	4	+6	21
7	Tottenham	13	6	2	5	+0	20
8	Brighton	13	4	7	2	+1	19
9	Arsenal	11	5	1	5	-1	16
10	Southampton	13	3	4	6	-11	13
11	Crystal Palace	13	2	6	5	-6	12
12	Aston Villa	12	4	0	8	-6	12
13	Watford	12	3	2	7	-3	11
14	Brentford	13	2	4	7	-12	10
15	Leeds	13	2	4	7	-21	10
16	Leicester	11	2	3	6	-9	9
17	Burnley	12	1	5	6	-8	8
18	Norwich	13	2	2	9	-23	8
19	Newcastle	11	1	4	6	-13	7
20	Everton	12	1	3	8	-13	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.