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Premier League
Referee: M Dean
Brentford
T T T U T
0–2
Full-time
Newcastle
U S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brentford Newcastle
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
0%
50%
Points per game
0,2
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
67%
17%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
2,5
2,0
Scored
0,5
1,3
Conceded
2,0
0,7
Goal diff per game
-1,5
+0,7
This season — Premier League · 26/24 matches
Win Ø 20%
23%
17%
Points per game
0,9
0,9
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
54%
46%
Both score Ø 61%
54%
67%
Average goals
2,7
3,0
Scored
1,0
1,1
Conceded
1,6
1,9
Goal diff per game
-0,6
-0,8
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

37% Possession 63%
6 Shots 26
1 Shots on target 11
2 Blocked shots 5
9 Goalkeeper saves 1
6 Corners 6
9 Free kicks against 7
3 Yellow cards 1
1 Red cards 0
The table before the match Brentford 14. · Newcastle 17.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Man City 26 20 3 3 +46 63
2 Liverpool 26 18 6 2 +50 60
3 Chelsea 25 14 8 3 +31 50
4 Man United 26 13 7 6 +10 46
5 Arsenal 24 14 3 7 +11 45
6 West Ham 26 12 6 8 +11 42
7 Tottenham 25 13 3 9 +3 42
8 Wolves 25 12 4 9 +4 40
9 Southampton 26 8 11 7 -3 35
10 Brighton 25 7 12 6 -3 33
11 Crystal Palace 26 6 11 9 -1 29
12 Leicester 23 7 6 10 -6 27
13 Aston Villa 24 8 3 13 -6 27
14 Brentford 26 6 6 14 -15 24
15 Leeds 26 5 8 13 -31 23
16 Everton 23 6 4 13 -12 22
17 Newcastle 24 4 10 10 -19 22
18 Burnley 23 3 11 9 -8 20
19 Watford 25 5 3 17 -22 18
20 Norwich 26 4 5 17 -40 17

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Brentford Newcastle
Joshua Dasilva ℹ️
VAR: Card upgrade
10′
Joshua Dasilva 🟥
11′
33′
Joelinton 0–1
R. Fraser
44′
J. Willock 0–2
F. Schär
Half-time 0–2
Kristoffer Ajer 🟨
46′
C. Eriksen 🔁
↦ M. Jensen
52′
I. Toney 🔁
↦ Y. Wissa
62′
64′
🔁 Bruno Guimarães
↦ J. Murphy
68′
🟨 Martin Dúbravka
Sergi Canós 🔁
↦ K. Ajer
72′
83′
🔁 J. Lascelles
↦ J. Willock
Bryan Mbeumo 🟨
84′
90′
🔁 M. Almirón
↦ R. Fraser
Vitaly Janelt 🟨
95′
Full-time 0–2

Line-ups

Brentford

4-3-3
1 David Raya G
18 P. Jansson D
20 K. Ajer D
3 R. Henry D
5 E. Pinnock D
6 C. Nørgaard M
8 M. Jensen M
27 V. Janelt M
11 Y. Wissa F
10 J. Dasilva F
19 B. Mbeumo F
Bench (9)
21 C. Eriksen
17 I. Toney
7 Sergi Canós
49 J. Lössl
14 S. Ghoddos
30 M. Rasmussen
26 S. Baptiste
22 M. Jørgensen
15 F. Onyeka

Coach: T. Frank

Newcastle

4-3-3
1 M. Dúbravka G
5 F. Schär D
33 D. Burn D
17 E. Krafth D
13 M. Targett D
8 J. Shelvey M
21 R. Fraser F
23 J. Murphy F
28 J. Willock M
20 C. Wood F
7 Joelinton M
Bench (9)
39 Bruno Guimarães
6 J. Lascelles
24 M. Almirón
18 F. Fernández
3 P. Dummett
19 Javi Manquillo
34 D. Gayle
36 S. Longstaff
26 K. Darlow

Coach: E. Howe

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
2,52
U
3,17
B ✓
3,04
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5
2,28
U2,5 ✓
1,65
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

M Dean · 52 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,4 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
21,2 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,15 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.